How Gemini's planned IPO will change the Winklevoss fortune

The upcoming IPO of Gemini could significantly impact the wealth position of the Winklevoss twins. As major owners of the cryptocurrency exchange, Taylor and Cameron will benefit from this move, which is scheduled for September or October and follows similar successful exit strategies in the industry.

The Current Winklevoss Wealth: Billions through Crypto

The two brothers are now among the wealthiest individuals in the crypto industry. Bloomberg estimates their respective net worth at $7.5 billion, while Forbes provides a slightly more conservative estimate of $4.3 billion each. Their rise to this level of wealth began in 2008 with the Facebook settlement: the twins received a total of $65 million, of which $20 million was in cash and $45 million in stock.

However, their wealth is primarily based on early investments in Bitcoin and the founding of Gemini in 2015. The duo currently holds about 70,000 Bitcoin, valued at over $7.9 billion—a substantial portion of their total assets.

Gemini Between Growth and Challenges

The planned IPO of Gemini occurs in a market environment that has already seen a successful listing of a comparable platform—valued at over $5 billion. Gemini itself presents an impressive balance sheet: the company manages 1.5 million users with lifetime transactions and a cumulative trading volume of $285 billion.

The business figures show mixed signals. Revenue increased from $98 million (2023) to $142 million in the following year—a 45 percent rise. Net loss improved from $319 million to $158 million, indicating progress toward profitability. In the first half of the current year, revenue was $68 million (compared to $74.3 million in the same period last year), while net loss increased to over $282 million—signaling rising operating costs.

The monthly user base includes 523,000 active traders, generating an average trading volume of about $25 billion per month.

Structural Weaknesses in the Business Model

A critical analysis reveals a conceptual dependency that could be problematic for Gemini. The company generates most of its revenue from trading fees—a strategy that can lead to significant revenue declines in bear markets. This fundamentally differs from diversified competitors that have built alternative revenue streams.

While Gemini offers credit card services, staking products, custody solutions, and the institutional stablecoin GUSD (with $51 million in liquidity) alongside its core business, the platform remains disproportionately dependent on trading activities, increasing risk concentration.

Valuation Expectations and Implications

The valuation range for a potential IPO remains speculative. In 2021, Gemini was valued at $7.1 billion when the company raised $400 million in venture capital. Whether the current market valuation will exceed or fall below this level depends on several factors—market conditions, user growth, and regulatory environment play central roles.

For the Winklevoss wealth, a successfully executed IPO could mean a significant increase in value, provided the valuation meets or exceeds previous expectations.