Over half a month of opportunities for altcoins? Bitcoin remains in control, but a change is coming

The altcoin market is constantly facing capital pressure. Bitcoin still dominates with a 55.88% market share, while the Altcoin Season Index remains around 37 points. This disparity means one thing – most tokens outside of Bitcoin are still waiting for their moment. However, the beginning of January 2026 could bring more than just an ordinary trading day.

Market Sentiment Signals Caution and Waiting

Investors are showing definite caution. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to around 28 points, clearly indicating a “fear” zone. This kind of climate usually precedes more dynamic market movements. Nearly 90% of major altcoins are trading well below their peaks, suggesting potential for a rebound – if conditions change.

Will Technical Patterns Indicate a Reversal for Altcoins?

Dr. Cat, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, points out interesting patterns visible on Bitcoin dominance charts. A triple bearish formation at a key resistance could signal a change in conditions. Historically, such configurations have preceded a decline in Bitcoin’s market share and provided room for altcoins to grow – though usually for a short period.

The key date is around January 5th. Analysts expect Bitcoin’s resistance to shift from approximately $89,000 to around $96,000. If BTC grows faster than its market share declines, altcoins may get an “breath” – a period of several to seven days during which altcoin profitability could surpass Bitcoin. This technical setup suggests a mini altseason between January 5 and 12.

Why Might Gains Not Materialize?

However, realistically, the market is saturated. Thousands of tokens chase a limited pool of capital. Even if Bitcoin’s dominance falls, gains may be selective – concentrated on a few high-profile projects rather than broad. The lack of confirmation through volume on technical charts adds an additional risk – any potential breakout could quickly break down.

What are the real chances of an altseason in 2026?

Long-term, a full-fledged altseason requires more than just technical patterns. An improvement in capital inflow and favorable macroeconomic conditions are necessary. CryptosBatman correctly notes that since 2022, tightening monetary policy by the Fed has limited available funds. If 2026 brings a rate cut and a return to a more lenient stance by financial institutions, altcoins could finally revive seriously.

What does a mini altseason mean for different types of investors?

For day traders, it could be an opportunity for quick profits. For long-term holders, it probably won’t change much, as the movement will be short-lived. The first beneficiaries will be funds and traders specializing in high-liquidity altcoins. Capital usually rotates first into well-known projects.

What to Watch After January 12?

If the market returns to broad setbacks and limited liquidity, investors’ focus will shift from short-term scenarios to long-term macroeconomic perspectives. The sustained return of altcoins will depend on whether the Fed and other central banks actually loosen monetary policy – and that remains a question for 2026 and beyond.

Summary: a mini altseason in the first two weeks of January 2026 is a real possibility, contingent on confirmation of technical signals. However, without support from macroeconomic conditions and improved liquidity, a full return of altcoins to the market remains a prospect more likely for the coming months.