JPMorgan Chase, one of Wall Street's top investment banks, has recently made a major shift, directly changing its previous forecast for the Federal Reserve. Originally, they predicted a 25 basis point rate cut in January this year. Now? There will be no rate cuts in 2026 at all. Even more sobering, they forecast that the Fed might raise interest rates again in Q3 2027, by another 25 basis points.

What does this mean? In simple terms, the market's previous expectation of a rate-cutting cycle might end before it even begins. What will replace it? Long-term high interest rates, and possibly the opening of the next rate hike cycle. This adjustment by JPMorgan reflects a significant change in their view of the US economy—economic resilience is stronger than expected, and inflation is not as sticky to fade easily.

What signal does this send to the cryptocurrency market? In a long-term high-interest-rate environment, capital will become more cautious. Crypto markets are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes. If the Fed maintains high rates for a longer period, the narrative of a "loose monetary policy" may need to be reevaluated. Capital inflows will be limited, and valuation expansion space will be compressed. In other words, the market will need to reprice risk assets based on new interest rate expectations.

This is not just JPMorgan's view. If other institutions follow similar forecasts, the global asset pricing logic will need to adjust accordingly. For assets relying on loose liquidity, this is undoubtedly a cold shower.