Ethereum adjustment cycle intensifies: USD trend strengthens and institutional divergence hampers rebound

As of today, Ethereum is trading around $3,120, with a marginal 24-hour gain (+0.43%), but technical pressures remain heavy. Institutional funds continue to flow out, with ETF net outflows reaching as high as $19.4 million in the past trading session, despite BlackRock’s contrarian increase of $23.2 million, which has failed to reverse the overall selling pressure.

US Dollar Trend Strengthens, Technicals Continue to Bear Down

Ethereum on the daily chart remains firmly constrained by a clear downtrend line. Over the past two weeks, every rebound attempt has faced selling pressure near this line, further confirming that this is not a temporary resistance but a sign of structural difficulties.

More concerning is that the price remains below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. These two key averages are currently clustered between $3,296 and $3,447, a zone that has repeatedly limited upward momentum. The 100-day moving average is around $3,491, reflecting that the overall trend has entered a clear correction cycle, far from a simple short-term pullback.

Ethereum failed to hold the 0.382 Fibonacci level (around $3,245), and is now closer to the 0.236 retracement zone (around $3,005). When the price falters in the mid-Fibonacci zone, subsequent rebounds tend to collapse quickly, which is the current situation.

Spot and ETF Funds Diverge, Bulls Lack Momentum

Data from the spot market is also worrying. Although a slight inflow of $13.8 million was recorded today, overall exchange fund flows remain net outflows, with selling pressure outweighing new accumulation.

Institutional divergence is even more apparent: BlackRock’s increased holdings are overshadowed by the overall ETF market net outflow of $19.4 million, indicating that large funds do not share a unified outlook. This contrast between sporadic buying and widespread selling often signals consolidation rather than trend reversal. Strong upward movement requires broad consensus among funds; relying on individual institutional positions is far from sufficient.

Short-term Charts: Fragile Rebound Fails to Mask Weakness

The one-hour chart shows Ethereum attempting to stabilize above $3,100 after a sharp decline earlier this week, but Supertrend and Parabolic SAR indicators still point to a bearish trend. Resistance is located between $3,150 and $3,180, with each rebound appearing weak and unable to generate momentum, indicating technical short-covering rather than new long entries.

As long as the price remains constrained by intraday trend resistance, any upward attempt is likely to face selling pressure again. If $3,080 is broken, the psychological level of $3,000 will come under further scrutiny.

Bull-Bear Divergence: Key Levels Determine Direction

Bearish Scenario: If the daily close is below $3,000, confirming a breakdown, the downside target shifts to $2,880, with further potential decline toward the $2,750 zone.

Bullish Scenario: Only if the daily closes above $3,296 and recovers $3,490 can the downtrend be broken, paving the way for a move toward $3,600.

Currently, Ethereum remains deep in a correction cycle. The strengthening dollar trend and ETF fund outflows exert dual pressure, making it difficult for bulls to gain ground. The key turning point depends on whether buyers can hold the $3,000 support and whether spot fund flows show signs of reversal. Until then, selling pressure will likely dominate market momentum.