Bitcoin's Thanksgiving Curse-Breaking Dance: From Crash to Rebound's Astonishing Turnaround

Breaking the Curse: The Unexpected Return of $90,000

A date long considered a “curse date” by the market—Thanksgiving—has this year become Bitcoin’s “breaker.” On the eve of Thanksgiving 2025, Bitcoin suddenly surged to a high of $90,331, ultimately stabilizing around $90,760, with a daily increase of 3.2%. This extraordinary performance has completely shattered the inertia of the downward trend established over the past seven years—historical data shows that from 2018 to 2024, Bitcoin declined for six consecutive years on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, with especially sharp drops in 2020 and 2021.

Meanwhile, the entire cryptocurrency market responded in unison. Ethereum rose to $3,120, and major coins like Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin also followed suit, creating a rare synchronized upward movement in the market.

The Background of the Rebound: From Despairing Bottom to a Glimmer of Hope

To understand the significance of this rebound, we must revisit Bitcoin’s recent “darkest hour.” Starting from the record high of $126,080 in early October, Bitcoin fell over 30% in just over a month, briefly dropping to $81,000, and even touching $80,600 in mid-November, marking the worst weekly performance since February. This plunge not only wiped out all gains made in 2025 but also pushed market sentiment to a freezing point.

However, from the recent lows, Bitcoin has rebounded approximately 12% within just a few days. The speed and magnitude of this reversal are undoubtedly a surprise to many market participants still immersed in pessimistic expectations.

Analyzing the Drivers: The Result of Multiple Factors Resonating

This abnormal rebound is not accidental but the result of multiple factors working together.

Macro Sentiment Rebounds

Bitcoin’s rebound coincides with the recovery of the US stock tech sector, driven by market expectations of a Fed rate cut again in December. Currently, the market predicts an 84.9% chance of a rate cut in December. Historical experience shows that a loose monetary policy environment generally benefits crypto assets. However, there are differing opinions on whether the Fed will indeed implement a third consecutive rate cut, which remains a key variable for future trends.

Liquidity Specifics Amplify Volatility

During the Thanksgiving holiday, traditional stock markets are closed, but crypto markets continue trading as usual. The lack of holiday trading volume means less capital is needed to push larger price swings. Research director at crypto data provider Kaiko pointed out that if investors continue to unwind positions before the holiday, liquidity will further dry up, intensifying price volatility—this precisely creates conditions for a rebound.

Technical Oversold Rebound Signals

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has recovered nearly 12% from last Friday’s lows, showing clear oversold rebound characteristics. When market panic reaches extremes, technical rebounds often occur naturally.

Market Response: A Tug-of-War Between Optimism and Caution

Options market data reflect traders’ cautious stance. Many participants expect Bitcoin to fluctuate within a relatively narrow range rather than initiate a one-sided rally. This “dual-sided inverse positioning” strategy sets a relatively stable tone for the holiday market.

However, not all analysts are optimistic about this rebound. Institutions like 10x Research believe that the strong performance of Bitcoin in Q4 must rely on clear catalysts rather than purely seasonal factors. They point out that while seasonal factors may support a bullish default hypothesis, they are currently insufficient to sustain continuous growth into 2025.

Potential Risks: Hidden Currents Beneath the Calm Surface

Shadows of Policy Uncertainty

The direction of Fed policy remains the biggest variable. The market may overly focus on the rate cut probability figures while ignoring the complexity of the macro environment. If the third consecutive rate cut lacks dovish forward guidance, the market could face a disappointing correction.

Lingering Liquidity Pressures

The $19 billion in open contracts liquidated during October’s crash left deep scars in the market. This structural liquidity pressure may not have fully eased, especially amid holiday trading dullness, and could at any moment trigger a new downward wave.

Outlook: Can the Thanksgiving Miracle Continue?

Bitcoin’s performance around Thanksgiving has always been unpredictable. History shows that Bitcoin’s performance during Thanksgiving and Christmas is far less stable than the US stock market—it often comes with high volatility.

The current rebound may be just an exception rather than the start of a new pattern. Whether Bitcoin can usher in the traditional “Santa Claus rally” in December or continue its independent trajectory depends on the final confirmation of Fed policies, further clarity on institutional fund flows, and whether the market can find enough substantial drivers. While the current rebound is encouraging, for investors, maintaining a clear sense of caution is more important than blind optimism.