Bitcoin in December: from speculative panic to institutional accumulation

December 2025 left many traders in shock: bitcoin plummeted nearly 9% and reached its highest volatility since April. But beneath this superficial turbulence, on-chain data tell a completely different story. VanEck has just published an in-depth analysis revealing how the market is experiencing a radical structural shift.

While retail speculators were scared, corporate treasuries of digital assets strategically took advantage of the declines. In December, these institutions accumulated 42,000 BTC, the most aggressive monthly increase since July, bringing their total positions above 1 million BTC. This is not an impulsive move: some companies are even innovating their financing methods, issuing preferred shares instead of common stock to raise capital exclusively for bitcoin purchases. It’s a hallmark of a long-term institutional strategy.

The Generational Holder Contrast

Data reveal a fascinating differentiation among investor groups. Those holding bitcoin between 1 and 5 years showed significant movements, likely taking profits or rebalancing positions. In contrast, veteran holders who have kept their coins for over 5 years remain virtually dormant, not selling. This suggests the market is filtering: cyclical participants are liquidating, while long-term believers never lost faith.

Complementing this picture, bitcoin ETF and similar product holdings decreased, indicating retail speculation is waning. This shift marks the transition from a market dominated by speculative trading to deliberate accumulation of assets at the corporate level.

Miners Under Pressure, but with Encouraging Histories

The bitcoin network faced significant challenges in December. Hashrate dropped 4%, the largest contraction since April 2024, mainly due to regulatory adjustments in high-hashrate regions like Xinjiang. Simultaneously, the breakeven electricity costs for major miners decreased, squeezing their margins.

However, VanEck highlights a crucial historical data point: sustained declines in hashrate have paradoxically been inverse bullish indicators. In previous cycles, periods of 90 to 180 days following these contractions often coincided with significant price recoveries. The network is rebalancing, not collapsing.

Beyond Volatility: The VanEck GEO Framework

VanEck’s analysis is based on its GEO framework, which assesses bitcoin’s structural health across three dimensions: global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity. This approach transcends the market’s obsession with short-term price movements.

From this perspective: liquidity is improving markedly, speculative leverage is gradually being purged, and institutional accumulation offsets weak signals such as stagnant growth in active on-chain addresses and declining transaction fees. The net result is cautiously optimistic.

The Financial Ecosystem in Transformation

The macroeconomic environment adds complexity but also opportunities. The US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in nearly three months, providing a boost to precious metals, although crypto assets remain under temporary pressure.

But there is a deeper structural movement: the rise of “all-in-one” exchange platforms that integrate stocks, cryptocurrencies, and prediction markets with AI-driven trading systems. Coinbase recently launched a similar expansion feature, adding products like stock and futures trading. From traditional brokers to native crypto companies, competition for market share is intensifying, which could significantly increase bitcoin’s liquidity and utility value in the long run.

Toward Market Maturity

Despite ongoing volatility, bitcoin has demonstrated a robust trajectory: it has doubled in two years and nearly tripled in three. What’s notable is the absence of the speculative extremes seen in previous cycles, indicating that market expectations have become more rational. Mid-term investors are likely to face cycles of smaller amplitude compared to the large highs and lows of the past.

The current market is in a critical phase of structural rebalancing: short- and medium-term speculation is dissipating, long-term holders are maintaining their positions with conviction, and institutional accumulation continues to accelerate. This convergence of dynamics, combined with declining mining scale and overall maturation, places bitcoin in a period of consolidation.

For VanEck, this rebalancing is not a weakness but a foundation: the current consolidation around levels of $90.87K could be exactly what the market needs to establish solid bases. With 2025 coming to an end, there is a tangible outlook that the first quarter of next year could bring a substantial recovery, supported by much more robust institutional fundamentals than in previous cycles.