The divergence that alerts the markets: Why are AI tokens falling while the S&P 500 continues to rise?

Recently, Alphractal analysts identified a key divergence in the behavior of two indicators that historically moved together: while U.S. unemployment is deteriorating, stock markets continue to rise. This phenomenon has raised concerns about the sustainability of the current rebound and its implications for the crypto market.

The labor market enigma and stocks

Labor participation currently stands at 59.4%, a significant decline from its October 1999 peak of (64.6%). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has gained 17.81% so far this year. This divergence breaks a historical pattern: traditionally, rising employment has supported the performance of macroeconomic assets like the U.S. index, while declines in employment have coincided with stock market weakness.

According to Alphractal, the sustained adoption of Artificial Intelligence in the corporate sector is driving stock markets higher but generates relatively few formal jobs. As the analysis notes: “What characterizes the current environment is that these critical labor indicators continue to deteriorate despite the ongoing divergence: fewer formal jobs alongside a S&P 500 increasingly driven by artificial intelligence”.

Analysts warn that this dynamic resembles conditions observed during previous market bubbles, with projections suggesting that by 2026, a significant weakness signal could emerge.

AI tokens under pressure: correlation with Wall Street

The behavior of AI assets in the crypto market closely follows sector trends on Wall Street. Curvo data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 dates back at least to 2011, a pattern now replicated in tokens related to artificial intelligence.

In just the last month, AI tokens have retreated 24.9%, accumulating losses of 74.6% so far this year, according to Artemis. These declines coincide with broader weakness in the stock market, especially in tech stocks. Trading volume has also shown deterioration, falling 20% to $3.48 billion, reflecting decreased investor conviction.

The ripple effect in altcoins

Pressure on AI tokens is a symptom of a deeper weakening in the altcoin segment. Total market capitalization has fallen to $1.16 trillion from a peak of $1.77 trillion, representing a 34% contraction. This decline is intensified considering that lower capital flows into risk assets typically generate larger outflows from these markets.

If bearish sentiment persists, analysts warn of the possibility that the market could hit the $1 trillion mark, a level not seen since April 22, 2025. The poor U.S. economic performance and the potential rise in unemployment could exacerbate this pressure.

What to expect in the coming months?

The divergence between weak labor indicators and rising markets creates an uncertain outlook. A deteriorated labor market combined with accelerated AI adoption creates a complex scenario: while technology boosts valuations on Wall Street, the reduction in formal jobs limits the fundamental support for growth.

For crypto market participants, the next movements of the S&P 500 and the AI stock sector will be crucial. The convergence of these variables could mark an important inflection point in 2026, according to market projections.