Whale hunting on Hyperliquid: when the algorithm beats stubbornness

At Hyperliquid, every day we witness a cruel spectacle where money rapidly changes hands. Whales operate here with radically different styles: some accumulate millimeter-precise algorithmic profits, others lose tens of millions over a single obsession. Analyzing December 2025 on-chain data reveals a fascinating picture of what we could call the true “whale hunt” in the derivatives market.

Victims of Their Own Stubbornness

In the whale game, stubbornness is more deadly than the loss itself. A notoriously famous address has accumulated $46.5 million in losses on Hyperliquid, ranking among the platform’s worst losers. The tragedy is paradoxical: a 77% success rate in trades, yet a catastrophic profit/loss ratio of 1:8.6.

This trader closes winning positions quickly (average 31 hours), but holds losing ones nearly three times longer (109 hours). There are two causes: first, he is a “stubborn bull” at 94%—only 6% of trades are bearish. With Bitcoin today at $90.79K and Ethereum at $3.12K, this inability to follow bearish cycles proves fatal. Second, when liquidation approaches, he adds margin instead of closing: the classic mistake of someone who cannot admit their errors. Before the October 11 crash, he was still in profit by $15 million; afterward, he plunged over $11 million into loss, and continued to fall.

Algorithms: When Machines Control the Market

If victims lose out of stubbornness, smart whales simply win by letting algorithms do the work. A market maker address with $1.11 billion deposited on Hyperliquid represents a completely different category. Currently, he holds an unrealized profit of about $143 million.

The strategy is sophisticated: basic short positions on specific tokens (like ETH at $3.12K), then algorithms that increase and decrease positions tens of thousands of times per day. It’s high-frequency arbitrage on micro price variations. Another address in the top 3 completes 1,394 orders in a single day (pending orders at 51% of total), each of small value ($733), accumulating tens of thousands of dollars daily.

These whales not only enjoy reduced commissions but also proprietary quantitative trading software and dedicated hardware infrastructure. It’s a “cold machine” that outperforms any human intuition.

The Sniper Who Waits Six Months for the Perfect Shot

On November 2, 2025, a whale deposits $80 million. On November 3, short on Bitcoin. On November 7, withdraws $92 million. The operation lasts 5 days, profit: $98.39 million. Then he disappears from the scene.

This is the profile of an insider: only 5 trades in six months, with an 80% success rate. The trading frequency is zero—he’s a sniper waiting months in position, observing the market, calculating the perfect moment, taking the biggest slice, then retreating. On October 20, he earns another $6.34 million from a short position. On November 8, he suffers a small loss of $1.3 million, but it’s negligible. He currently holds a long position on Ethereum worth $269 million.

This trader represents someone who knows market movements before others—perhaps an insider, perhaps just a genius. In any case, he doesn’t compete with algorithms; he anticipates the market.

The Redemption of the Lone Trader: From Ruin to 21/21

An extraordinary case emerged at the end of November 2025: a wallet with only $129 remaining (85% loss from an initial capital of $46,000). Until December 1, he was a chaotic trader operating on 10+ different tokens with stubborn positions on minor altcoins.

Then something changed. From December 2 onward: 21 consecutive winning trades. It’s not magic; it’s a methodical transformation:

• December 3: tries with 1 ETH ($3.12K), gains $37
• December 5: increases to 5-8 ETH, gains ~ $200 per trade
• December 7: 20 ETH, profits of $1,000 per trade
• December 8: 50-80 ETH, profits of $4,000
• December 9: 95 ETH, daily profit of $5,200

Final capital: $29,000. Growth of 225x in one week.

The secret is extreme discipline: focus on a single asset (Ethereum), reducing position duration from an average of 33.76 hours to 4.98 hours, adopting a “rolling” model to capitalize on every oscillation. Leverage increased from 3.89x to 6.02x—the risk skyrocketed. In fact, a sudden market move nearly halved profits, turning the exponential curve into a sharp fall.

The Solana Trap: When Obsession Consumes Profits

A whale who invested $236 million mostly in short positions (86.32% long positions) tells a different story. Out of 700+ trades, 650 are long. He lost a total of $5.87 million—the drawdown is contained at 2.4%, seemingly manageable.

Yet, there’s a scar: SOL. With Solana today at $139.79, this whale lost $9.48 million in a single position on this token. Analyzing other trades: FARTCOIN and SUI generated over $1 million each, ETH and Bitcoin nearly $1 million. Excluding the loss on SOL, total profit would have been around $4 million.

So the real loss isn’t the absolute loss but the obsession. This whale continues to operate on SOL, stubbornly against a clear bearish trend. It’s as if he has a personal enemy in the token and cannot stop fighting it.

What the Whale Hunt Teaches

In this arena where algorithms, insiders, and stubborn traders clash, there is no “Holy Grail” of trading. But clear patterns of success and failure do exist.

Persistent losers share three characteristics: first, lack of directional flexibility (the 94% long of Maji, the 86% long of the SOL whale). Second, inability to accept small losses (average losses instead of cutting them). Third, obsession with specific assets rather than following the overall trend.

Conversely, winners: operate according to emotionless algorithms, or observe the market patiently and strike at the right moment, or maintain extreme discipline (like the trader who turned $129 into $29,000).

For the average investor, the lesson isn’t “how to make a billion,” but “how to avoid becoming like Maji Big Brother.” Don’t fight whale algorithms with your limited capital. Don’t trade on 10 tokens simultaneously. Don’t hold losing positions out of stubbornness.

The market, with its Bitcoin at $90.79K, Ethereum at $3.12K, and SOL at $139.79, has a simple truth: those who follow the trend survive, those who challenge it succumb.