The new coin has been listed for less than two weeks, and the whale has already lost $1.8 million. What's going on with LIT?

Whales Also Hit Snags

According to the latest news, a whale (0xf394…1072) holding a long position in LIT is currently facing an unrealized loss of over $1.8 million. The current LIT price fluctuates around $2.50. This number looks large, but it reflects a more interesting phenomenon: even experienced whales are prone to pitfalls during the early stages of a new token launch.

Why Are New Tokens So Volatile?

Background of LIT’s Launch

LIT is the token of the Lighter project, which just went live on December 30, 2025, less than two weeks ago. It is currently ranked 81st with a market cap of $624.72 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $13.37 million. The market activity seems decent, but the volatility is clearly significant.

The Truth Behind Price Movements

An 8.71% drop over 7 days is not extreme for a newly launched token, but it is enough to make holders uncomfortable. The whale’s unrealized loss of $1.8 million suggests that their entry point was likely at a higher price.

Why Did It Drop?

Based on news, LIT is not entirely unsupported by fundamentals. Lighter has started using protocol funds to buy back LIT, which previously pushed the price up by 14%. However, this fundamental positive has already been priced in by the market, and the subsequent decline indicates a shift in market sentiment.

Personal Observations

From the news, recent discussions about LIT include both bullish voices (highlighting buybacks and fundamentals) and bearish ones (technical breakdowns and short-sell suggestions). This divergence of opinions itself indicates that market consensus on LIT is not yet solid.

In the early stages of a new token launch, there is often an “emotional rollercoaster”: hype before launch, a surge after launch, followed by a pullback. The whale’s $1.8 million unrealized loss may be a result of entering during this process.

Follow-up Focus

Whether LIT can hold its current price level is crucial. If it continues to fall, it may test lower support levels. If it stabilizes, subsequent buybacks and project developments could serve as new catalysts. But for a newly launched token, these are still uncertain.

Summary

The whale’s $1.8 million unrealized loss reminds us that new tokens carry significant risks, and even experienced large holders cannot fully avoid them. LIT is currently facing a test of market sentiment shift. While fundamentals have some support, time is needed to verify its true value. In the short term, volatility is expected to remain high, and close attention should be paid to whether the price can hold key support levels.