#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Don't underestimate every move Trump makes

Since taking office, every action by this US president has been a multi-dimensional game, far more complex than it appears on the surface.

Let's look at a few typical cases:

**Department of Government Efficiency** — On the surface, it’s about cutting government spending, but in reality, it layers upon layers. It can eliminate disobedient departments and personnel, while also creating a tense fiscal environment to justify subsequent tariff policies. Multiple gains in one move.

**Tariff Policies** — Involving triple effects. Directly increasing fiscal revenue, while pressuring countries like Mexico, it also indirectly suppresses specific economies. This move operates simultaneously across trade, security, and fiscal dimensions.

**Bitcoin Strategic Reserves** — The most interesting. It fulfills campaign promises and creates positive expectations for the entire crypto ecosystem. What does the prosperity of the crypto industry mean for the US? New sources of tax revenue, rising demand for stablecoins, and increased purchasing power of US debt. One decision, multiple benefits.

**Venezuela Situation** — This move is even deeper. It compensates former interest groups (oil companies’ revenge), opens new oil and gas extraction opportunities, potentially lowering oil prices and CPI. Geopolitically, it weakens the energy alliances of certain major powers, and can also support the US dollar exchange rate.

This is the so-called "killing multiple birds with one stone" — each action simultaneously impacts multiple boards.

**Regarding the Federal Reserve Chair**

If an investigation into the current Fed Chair ultimately proves true, it serves as a warning to others. If not, it still acts as a deterrent — making everyone realize that anyone who doesn’t cooperate with rate cut expectations will face investigation.

The key point here: the current chair is himself a nominee. But in the face of rate cut demands, he’s not very cooperative. At such times, a proper "reminder" becomes a necessary tactic.

It also serves as a preemptive warning to the incoming new chair, and as an invisible deterrent to the entire Fed system — don’t oppose economic policies.

**Rate Cut Expectations for the Second Half of the Year**

Overall, these policies are indeed pointing in one direction: accelerating the Fed’s rate cut process. But whether it will actually happen in the first half remains to be seen.

The second half looks somewhat more optimistic, but only "a bit." Trump’s forte is in public opinion guidance and expectation management; over-expectation can easily lead to pitfalls in his approach.

**Market Insights**

This policy cycle has a tangible impact on the cryptocurrency market — whether it’s establishing Bitcoin’s status as a strategic asset, or the improving policy friendliness toward stablecoins and the Web3 ecosystem, are gradually progressing.

The key is to patiently wait for confirmation signals at critical time points. Market opportunities always favor those who are patient and can control the rhythm.