Spot gold breaks through $4,600 for the first time: What is the future of "digital gold"?

The Asian markets opened the day with a surge in trading, and spot gold prices jumped sharply, breaking through the $4,600 per ounce level for the first time. Behind this figure is not only a historic leap in gold prices but also a profound shift in global financial market risk appetite.

As the U.S. Department of Justice threatens to file criminal charges against the Federal Reserve, tensions in the Middle East escalate, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts are recalibrated, gold’s status as the ultimate safe-haven asset is once again reinforced.

01 Historic Breakthrough

Under the influence of multiple factors, spot gold hit a historic record on January 12. In the early Beijing time, the London spot gold price reached a high of $4,601.38 per ounce, marking the first time in gold trading history that it surpassed the $4,600 mark.

This round of gold rally is strong. Since the beginning of the new year, gold prices have increased by a total of $280, with intraday gains exceeding 2% at one point.

Not only gold, but the entire precious metals market is showing strong momentum. Spot silver also performed outstandingly, soaring over 5% to break through $83, setting a new all-time high. Spot platinum rose by 4.05%, surpassing the $2,360 per ounce level.

02 Multiple Storms Converge

Analyzing the main factors driving gold prices higher, it is clear to see the combined effect of multiple storms.

Geopolitical risks continue to escalate as a key driver. In the early hours of January 12, loud explosions were heard in Kyiv, Ukraine, with the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming to have targeted Ukrainian military industrial targets. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East remain unstable, and the U.S. continues to pressure Iran.

These events have prompted investors to turn to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. A precious metals analyst at a futures company stated that rising geopolitical tensions have triggered short-term safe-haven buying of gold and also rapidly eroded the credibility of the dollar as the core of the world order.

Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have also fueled gold price increases. On January 11, Fed Chair Powell issued a statement that the U.S. Department of Justice had issued a grand jury subpoena to the Fed, threatening criminal charges related to testimony before the Senate in June 2025.

This event has raised concerns about the Fed’s independence, with Powell himself stating that this action is a “political excuse.” This uncertainty has accelerated capital flows into gold and other non-sovereign assets.

03 Economic Data and Rate Cut Expectations

Last Friday’s U.S. non-farm payroll data further supported the rise in gold prices. The data showed that non-farm employment increased by 50,000 in December, below the expected 70,000.

This is the weakest private sector employment growth since the “jobless recovery” began in 2003, despite the U.S. economy not slipping into recession.

Gu Fenga, chief analyst at Guoxin Futures, said that this data reinforced market expectations of a cooling U.S. labor market and the possibility of continued easing by the Federal Reserve. Although the short-term probability of rate cuts has fluctuated, major institutions like Morgan Stanley and Citigroup still expect 2 to 3 rate cuts by 2026.

Market expectations for rate cuts have lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing medium-term support for precious metals prices.

04 The Intersection of “Digital Gold” in Crypto Markets and Gold

In the face of the traditional gold market’s boom, Gate’s crypto trading platform users exhibit a unique asset allocation logic. As of January 12, with gold reaching a new high, the crypto market also showed close linkage.

On the same day that gold broke through $4,600, Gate’s core data reflected a solid foundation in the crypto market. As of January 6, 2026, Gate’s total reserve ratio reached 125%, with total reserves valued at $9.478 billion, covering nearly 500 types of user assets.

Specifically, the total number of BTC users was 17,640, with Gate’s reserves at 24,817 BTC, an over-reserve rate of 40.69%. The total ETH users numbered 337,565, with reserves of 419,320 ETH, an over-reserve ratio of 24.22%.

These data points highlight the importance of the robustness of crypto market infrastructure in attracting safe-haven capital during periods of turmoil in traditional financial markets.

05 Major Institutions’ Outlook

Regarding the future trend of gold, major institutions generally hold an optimistic view. The World Gold Council’s 2026 outlook report states that driven by falling U.S. Treasury yields, escalating geopolitical tensions, and heightened risk aversion, gold prices could rise by 15% to 30% above current levels by 2026.

More specific targets have also been proposed. Bank of America predicts that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026. Morgan Stanley has set a target price of $4,800 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs’ global head of commodities research, Dan Stuiven, said that the Fed’s push for monetary policy normalization through rate cuts is most likely to drive metal prices higher, especially precious metals.

Some analysts have set medium- to long-term targets for gold. It is suggested that the target prices could be $5,100 to $5,200 in 2026, followed by $5,600 and then $6,100 to $6,200.

06 Investors at a Crossroads

For global investors, the breakthrough of gold above $4,600 marks an important crossroads.

On one hand, the traditional safe-haven status of gold is reinforced during turbulent times; on the other hand, crypto assets like Bitcoin, often called “digital gold,” are attracting investors seeking non-sovereign, decentralized stores of value.

A survey of several fund managers by Bloomberg indicates that they are reluctant to withdraw too much from gold positions, firmly believing in gold’s long-term appeal. The same logic applies to long-term value investors in the crypto market, who are also seeking assets that can hedge against inflation and market volatility.

A stark reality facing the market is that, as global multipolarity and de-dollarization accelerate, non-sovereign assets—whether gold or cryptocurrencies—are attracting more institutional capital.

The interaction between gold and cryptocurrencies is becoming increasingly complex; they are no longer simple substitutes but serve different functions as stores of value in various scenarios.

Future Outlook

The surge in gold prices has not only driven up jewelry prices for domestic brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao Gold but also prompted South Korea’s Financial Services Commission to relax restrictions on corporate investments in cryptocurrencies.

Traders are closely watching the Fed’s next policy moves while adjusting their positions in precious metals and cryptocurrencies across major global exchanges. On the Gate platform, user assets span nearly 500 diverse options, as investors seek a new asset allocation balance that bridges traditional and digital fields.