Is This Bitcoin's Biggest Bear Trap Yet? Multiple Analysts Sound the Alarm

Bitcoin’s recent price action is raising eyebrows among market watchers. After briefly touching $90,000 at the start of the week, BTC (currently trading around $91.15K) experienced a sharp pullback of over 2.6%, signaling what seasoned traders are calling a textbook bear trap setup.

The Pattern Playing Out Again

What’s capturing attention isn’t just the price movement—it’s the historical precedent. According to analyst James Bull, Bitcoin has displayed a consistent seasonal pattern over the past four years. Specifically, the asset has staged significant December sell-offs, only to reverse course dramatically in January. The data backs this up: between December 26-31, 2024, BTC declined 8.5%, but the first week of January 2025 saw a 12.5% recovery.

“This looks like a Christmas trap that’s about to flip,” Bull observed, highlighting that institutional ETF outflows are slowing and moving toward zero—a metric that preceded Bitcoin’s 33% rally to $112,000 in May 2024 following a similar April scenario.

Technical Setup Suggests Higher Moves Ahead

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern—a classic technical formation that often precedes explosive moves. Breaking above the upper trendline at $90,000 with daily close confirmation could signal a run toward $107,400, according to technical analysts monitoring the pattern closely.

Another prominent analyst, “Bitcoin Therapist,” takes an even more bullish stance. With the traditional four-year halving cycle showing signs of deviation, he suggests the first quarter of 2026 could deliver a new all-time high. Some are even calling this setup “the most significant bear trap in Bitcoin history.”

Institutional Forecasts Turn Bullish

The optimism extends beyond technical analysts. Major financial institutions are weighing in with elevated targets. Citi Group’s 12-month base case for Bitcoin sits at $143,000, driven primarily by renewed institutional demand through ETF vehicles. Their bullish scenario pushes even higher, to $189,000—a projection underscoring confidence in BTC’s recovery trajectory as 2026 unfolds.