24h Market Quick Scan | Fed rate cut expectations cool down; Aave governance controversy draws market attention (December 25)

Overview of Mainstream Cryptocurrency Performance

According to exchange data, the performance of major cryptocurrencies over the past 24 hours is as follows:

Leading Coins

• Bitcoin (BTC): +0.87%
• Ethereum (ETH): +1.36%
• Binance Coin (BNB): -0.80%
• Solana (SOL): +3.95%
• Dogecoin (DOGE): -1.12%
• Zcash (ZEC): +6.62%
• Harvest (FARM): -1.80%

Most Active Gainers

• Banana Gun (BANANA): -1.84%
• Metis Token (METIS): +0.03%
• Ultiverse (ULTI): -5.51%
• Avantis (AVNT): -2.95%
• Solayer (LAYER): -3.35%
• Cat in a Dogs World (MEW): -1.08%
• Particle Network (PARTI): -2.15%
• Dash (DASH): +0.80%
• Conflux (CFX): -1.43%
• Aavegotchi (GHST): -3.65%

Market Focus Events

Limited Federal Reserve Rate Cuts in 2026

BlackRock’s latest strategic report indicates that the Fed’s rate cuts in 2026 will be significantly limited. Strategists Amanda Lynam and Dominique Bly analyze that, with a total of 175 basis points of rate cuts already implemented in this cycle, the Fed is approaching a neutral interest rate level. Unless there is a sharp deterioration in the labor market, further rate cuts will be quite limited. The market expects two rate cuts by the Fed in 2026.

This shift in expectations could impact liquidity in the crypto markets, and investors should closely monitor subsequent Fed policy developments.

Aave Governance Crisis: Founder’s Token Purchase Sparks Community Doubt

Aave founder Stani Kulechov recently caused controversy by purchasing $10 million worth of AAVE tokens. DeFi strategist Robert Mullins accuses this move of aiming to increase voting power to support proposals that harm token holders’ interests. Noted crypto analyst Sisyphus also expressed concern, questioning Kulechov’s motives, noting that he has sold several million dollars worth of AAVE in recent years, and the purpose of this buyback is suspicious.

The key issue is the high governance concentration in Aave DAO. Data shows that the top three voters in Aave DAO control over 58% of voting rights, raising deep concerns about governance fairness. This controversy reflects that large token purchases can have a substantial impact on high-risk proposal votes, potentially altering the protocol’s development direction.

Spark strategy lead monetsupply.eth further reveals the deeper background: over the past few years, Aave Labs has been developing Aave v4 (which has received $15 million in DAO funding), while service providers like ACI, BGD, and TokenLogic focus on v3 expansion. v3 has grown into the largest on-chain lending protocol, with annual net revenue reaching tens of millions of dollars. However, during v4 development, resources were allocated to unrelated projects, failing to generate incremental value.

The struggle over brand control and the aave.com frontend is essentially a competition for the “traffic entrance” of the ecosystem, involving development routes for v3/v4.

Bitcoin Options Market to Witness Historic Event

This Friday (December 27), approximately $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, marking the largest options expiration in Bitcoin history. Market analysis indicates that the overall sentiment at this expiration is bullish, with the maximum pain point at $96,000. This level is expected to reinforce the upward trend in the market.

Ethereum L1 Sets New Daily Trading Record for the Year

According to blockchain data, Ethereum Layer 1 processed 1,913,481 transactions on December 23, setting the highest single-day transaction volume in 2025. The average transaction fee was only $0.16, reflecting ongoing network efficiency improvements.

Industry Economic Outlook

US Economy Continues Resilience

Barclays economists have revised upward the US Q4 GDP growth forecast to 2.0%. Although volatility in net exports and other factors may exaggerate overall growth, sustained consumer spending indicates underlying resilience. Year-end aggregate demand has accumulated significant momentum.

Labor Market Stuck in “No Hiring, No Firing” Mode

US initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 214,000 last week, but the overall employment market remains stagnant. Continuing claims increased by 38,000 to 1.923 million, reflecting low corporate hiring willingness. The November unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a four-year high.

Gold Continues to Reach New Highs

Gold prices have risen again, surpassing 50 new all-time highs. Senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya from Swissquote states that the core factors driving gold prices upward have not diminished, and the medium- to long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic.

Capital Flows Drive Crypto Market

Research from Matrixport indicates that the primary driver of current crypto asset prices remains incremental capital inflows rather than user growth or application scenario changes. For example, during the nearly $10 billion inflow into Ethereum ETFs, ETH prices rose from about $2,600 to $4,500; after the inflow slowed, prices retraced gains.

Compared to the previous bull cycle, which centered around “adoption, revenue, and network growth,” this cycle’s price performance is more heavily dependent on where capital flows, the pace of entry, and when inflows stop. Understanding and proactively anticipating capital movements will be a key research focus in 2026.

Project Developments and Funding

Drift Foundation: Planning to Allocate $9 Million to Drift Labs Operations

Drift Foundation submitted DIP-9 proposing to establish a sustainable fee distribution framework. The proposal suggests allocating $1.5 million per month from protocol fees to Drift Labs to support engineering infrastructure, subscriptions, and gas expenses. If approved, an initial $9 million will cover costs for the first half of 2026, with subsequent monthly distributions over 18 months. To date, Drift’s protocol has earned $42 million in fees, demonstrating solid ecosystem performance.

Uniswap Foundation Executive Compensation Structure Sparks Criticism

Financial data shows that in 2024, Uniswap Foundation disbursed $9.9929 million in grants, with employee compensation totaling $479,430, of which $3.8711 million went to executives, accounting for 22% of total expenses. In comparison, Optimism Grants Council’s budget for the same period was $63.5 million, with operational costs (including reviewer fees and KYC services) only about $2.6393 million. The total compensation for three Uniswap Foundation executives equals the entire operational cost of Optimism, yet the funds delivered are only 20% of that.

Hyper Foundation: HYPE Tokens Officially Burned

Hyper Foundation confirmed that HYPE tokens in the aid fund system address have been officially burned. The governance vote was based on weighted consensus, with 85% of voting rights in favor, 7% against, and 8% abstaining.

Web3 Social Platform Crypto Life Completes $20 Million Funding

Next-generation decentralized social ecosystem Crypto Life announced the completion of a $20 million institutional funding round, with investors including Bluemount Foundation, VEGA-Ventures, Infinite Alliance, ChainPulse Capital, UZ Capital, and others. Crypto Life aims to build a global decentralized social network, using blockchain technology to break the monopoly of traditional platforms on user data, and to reshape social trust systems and value distribution.

Regulatory Policy Updates

EU Digital Asset Tax Transparency Act to Take Effect

The EU’s latest Digital Asset Tax Transparency Act will come into force on January 1, 2026, expanding the long-term tax administrative cooperation framework to include crypto assets and related service providers. Exchanges and brokers will be required to report detailed user and transaction information to tax authorities in member states.

Hong Kong Regulatory Authorities Issue Multiple Warnings

Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has listed “Kuying Kele” and “Globiance X/Globiance HK” as suspicious virtual asset trading platforms, alleging unlicensed operation, and has received investor complaints about withdrawal difficulties.

Additionally, the SFC warns investors to beware of suspicious investment products such as “Victory Soy Sauce Original Liquor (VSFOLT),” which claims to represent physical Baijiu assets and Hong Kong-listed company shares, potentially causing significant losses.

The Hong Kong Treasury and SFC have issued consultation summaries on virtual asset trading and custody licensing regimes, and are conducting further public consultations on licensing for virtual asset service providers and management service providers (one-month period).

Philippines Strengthens Virtual Asset Regulation

The Philippines has begun banning unlicensed virtual asset service platforms suspected of illegal operations, due to violations related to VASP (Virtual Asset Service Provider) services.

Market Perspectives and Analysis

Analysts generally believe that, in an environment where capital flows are the dominant factor, the entry and exit rhythm of short-term traders is crucial. When mainstream coins break below key moving averages, short-term speculative funds tend to withdraw; conversely, once they regain key moving averages, capital systematically flows back, restoring market momentum.

Regarding future trends, some market participants believe the logic of gold leading the rally is being validated, followed by more vigorous Bitcoin gains. They advise against shorting at this stage, as it could be a historic opportunity.

Furthermore, industry optimism about future technological progress persists. It is believed that by the 2030s, if developers truly aim for bug-free code, this goal can be achieved, although many software will still contain bugs due to prioritization of features.

China Property Investment Holdings Limited announced that the board has decided to advance its asset allocation plan, intending to use its own funds to purchase and hold BNB and other suitable digital assets on the open market as strategic reserves.