The True Meaning of History: How Did Bitcoin Overcome the Thanksgiving Jinx?

The history of Bitcoin on Thanksgiving is full of changes and challenges. Over the past seven years, the price has dropped six times before this holiday, but 2025 will bring wonders. From a very low $81,000 last week, Bitcoin has reached $91,580 currently, an impressive recovery unmatched in previous years.

This momentum includes other digital assets: Ethereum has reached $3,140 (+1.41%), while Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin follow the upward trend. The sudden shift in market sentiment raises questions: what has truly changed?

The Mythology of Thanksgiving Trading: Why Has the Pattern Changed?

From 2018 to 2024, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving was often marked by heavy selling. The biggest drops occurred in 2020 and 2021, when panic selling peaked. But this year, that trend has comprehensively failed.

This is not just a simple dead cat bounce. The $12 billion recovery from panic lows has shown serious reaccumulation. The meaning of history is not always repetition—sometimes it is transformation. Investors are no longer following the old pattern; they are responding to a new macro landscape.

Where Does the Strength Come From? Market Structure and Macro Winds

The rebound did not happen without reason. Three main factors contributed:

1. The Fed Rate Cut Probability
The market is rallying on the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with an 84.9% probability according to the latest forecasts. Even with doubts about three consecutive cuts, the simple expectation is enough to bring hope.

2. Stock Market Positive Sentiment
The rebound of US tech stocks is coinciding with Bitcoin’s recovery. When risk appetite increases, crypto is among the first to benefit from liquidity flows.

3. Holiday Liquidity Mechanics
While traditional markets pause for Thanksgiving, the crypto market remains open. Lower liquidity means less capital is needed to make large price moves. This is a double-edged sword—capable of producing both bullish and bearish movements.

Concerns That We Are Not Yet Ready

While current momentum is encouraging, structural risks remain threats:

Liquidation Pressure
In October, $19 billion in open interest was highly compressed, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations. This pressure may not be fully out of the system yet, especially if selling volume increases.

Macro Policy Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve’s decision is at the heart of everything. If the rate cut comes without dovish guidance, the market could face significant disappointment. Analysts warn that the market is overly focused on the rate cut probability and is ignoring the “complex macro background.”

Seasonality Isn’t a Guarantee
Bitcoin’s Q4 performance is always variable. While traditionally this quarter has been strong based on historical data, there is no concrete bullish signal that past years failed to deliver. The real catalyst is more important than seasonal patterns.

The Current Picture: $91,580 and Beyond

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $91,580, close to the $92,520 24-hour high. The 0.87% daily gain does not show excessive enthusiasm, but the recovery from $81,000 is undeniable evidence of resilience.

Ethereum is supported by its own momentum, reaching $3,140 with a higher 1.41% daily movement. This indicates that bullish sentiment is not exclusive to Bitcoin—it is pervasive across the entire crypto ecosystem.

The Real Question: How to Break Resistance?

Analysts are cautiously optimistic. The options market shows traders are preparing for a somewhat bounded trading range, not for an explosive breakout. It appears as if the market is trying to find equilibrium after a deep sell-off.

The direction toward a Santa Claus rally in December depends on two things: (1) If the Federal Reserve signals dovishness, and (2) If institutional money flows back into digital assets.

The meaning of history for Bitcoin this year is this: patterns can break when fundamentals align. It does not guarantee continued upward movement, but it proves that the market is more sophisticated than ever.