Recent analysis by institutions suggests that US real consumer spending may grow by 2.4% this quarter, which sounds promising. But a closer look at the data reveals several issues.

The truth behind the consumption growth is quite sobering. Disposable income for high-income groups has only increased by 3.0%, and they are the main drivers of consumption. Once the stock market weakens and the wealth effect reverses, high-end spending immediately slows down. In simple terms, current consumption growth is built on stock account gains, which carries significant risk.

Even more concerning is the inflation data. Calling inflation "moderate"? Look at the recent core PCE data—monthly rates from November to December have rebounded to 0.15%-0.30%. Annualized, this means inflation is accelerating again. Institutions forecast that the December core PCE year-over-year will reach 2.7%, and it won't return to 2.1% until December next year. Will the annual target of 2% be achieved? It's uncertain.

What's more interesting is that various forecasting agencies have already begun to raise inflation expectations for 2025-2026. This indicates a shift in market views on inflation. Strong consumption, rebounding inflation, and support from high-income groups—how long can this combination last?