Bitcoin fights for the 85,000-dollar level – will investors engage in the classic "buying out of fear"?

Chain Metrics Fuel Concerns, but BTC Remains Surprisingly Resilient

The market situation has reached a critical point for many holders. The decision is simple – hold positions in hopes of gains, or hedge against a potential deeper correction? Anxiety is growing in the context of Japanese bond market movements, which are reinforcing risk-avoidance sentiment globally.

That’s why Bitcoin’s chain data does not show a recovery similar to that observed in the second quarter. The STH NUPL indicator remains deeply in the negative, clearly signaling capitulation among short-term holders. New data shows that miner reserves have shrunk by 900 BTC over 48 hours – representing sales of about $76 million. Relative to the average production cost for miners, it’s clear they are operating at a loss.

However, despite these concerning signals, Bitcoin remains above the $85,000 barrier – and the current price of around $91,550 demonstrates even greater strength. This resilience raises a fundamental question: is the market finally starting to implement a “buy when others are afraid” strategy?

Large Accumulations Strengthen the Market Bottom

The picture changes when we look at whale behavior. In the current macroeconomic environment, their activity becomes crucial. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to the highest level in three decades – this immediately paralyzed spot Bitcoin demand, especially from US investors.

Yet, this volatility creates opportunities for shifts among holders. Weaker hands are being flushed out of the market, while stronger entities are taking over the offered supply.

Chain data confirms this unequivocally: nearly 50% of Bitcoin’s current realized capitalization comes from new whale acquisitions. Since realized capitalization reflects historical on-chain transaction prices, the fact that half of this value is tied to recent whale purchases indicates a mass transfer of ownership from weaker players to significantly stronger ones.

What Does This Mean for Future Price Movement?

From a technical perspective, this dynamics explains why Bitcoin shows stability despite increasing market FUD. BTC has already closed four consecutive weeks above the $85,000 threshold, forming a clearly resilient support zone.

If this pattern persists, it would suggest that the market bottom may already be behind us. Classic buy-in-fear rules – when investors panic and whales accumulate – are beginning to materialize in practice.

Key observations:

• Chain indicators signal pressure, but BTC price demonstrates undeniable strength
• 50% of realized capitalization driven by new whale accumulations indicates a shift in supply from weaker to stronger entities
• Four weeks of closes above $85,000 suggest the formation of a solid bottom