Inflation could be headed for a major downside surprise next year, according to market analysts tracking Fed expectations. If that thesis plays out, we're likely looking at more aggressive Fed rate cuts than consensus currently prices in—and that would send bond yields significantly lower across the board.

The real kicker? You get the best of both worlds here. Lower inflation means the central bank has more room to ease without stoking price pressures, while simultaneously pushing down borrowing costs. For markets already pricing in a certain path, this kind of shift could reshape positioning pretty quickly.

The mechanics are straightforward: disinflationary surprise → Fed confidence to cut deeper → lower yields ripple through bonds and credit. It's a scenario that could catch a lot of traders flat-footed if consensus has priced in something closer to sticky inflation.