$400,000 Bet: Polymarket Maduro Incident Sparks Information Leak Concerns

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bet that made $400,000 with Maduro capture raises suspicions of information leak Original Link: The U.S. arrest of Nicolás Maduro in the early hours of Saturday (the 3rd) has sparked suspicions of insider information leaks in prediction markets. A certain bet on the Polymarket platform won $400,000, with a return on investment of 1200%, betting that the Venezuelan leader would be ousted before January 31.

What drew attention and triggered a U.S. government information leak alert was that the account was created at the end of December, had only four bets, all related to U.S. military actions in Venezuela. The bettor spent $32,500 betting that Maduro would be ousted before January 31, purchasing these positions at a price of 7 cents per share, according to Axios investigation.

When an event with open bets is resolved, the holder of the winning position receives $1 per share. Therefore, the bettor gained a profit of 93 cents per share, with a purchase cost of only 7 cents.

According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction markets had already noticed some abnormal fluctuations before the attack, as bets related to Maduro started rising from Friday evening (the 2nd).

A user named X claimed to have made $80,000 profit after noticing an increase in Domino’s Pizza orders around the Pentagon. Such order increases are often seen as indirect indicators of increased U.S. military personnel and nighttime activity.

Son of the U.S. president Donald Trump II is an advisor to two major prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi.