#数字资产市场动态 Trading on exchanges is about more than luck—methodology is more valuable than chance

After years of navigating the crypto space, the most common complaint I hear is—do retail investors really can't make money?

I've seen quite a few tragedies: someone gets liquidated after being caught off guard at dawn; someone trusts "insider information" and goes all-in, only to have their account wiped out. But my own experience tells me this isn't a market problem, it's a strategy problem.

Starting with a capital of $3,000 in 2017, my account curve has been like climbing a hill—steady, predictable, with drawdowns never exceeding 8%. Over time, it grew into eight figures. During these years of bull and bear cycles, friends around me either mortgage their homes to fill gaps or delete apps and quit. Yet I’ve been able to withdraw profits over 30 times safely, with a weekly high of $650,000.

The core secrets are actually just three points, even beginners can quickly learn:

**First Trick: Take Profits and Stop Losses as True "Bumpers"**

Set take profit and stop loss on every trade—this is not a suggestion, but an iron rule. When profits reach 10% of your principal, withdraw half immediately to a cold wallet to lock in gains, and leave the other half to continue rolling. The benefit is: it compounds your gains, and losses only give back part of the profits. It’s like installing an airbag on your entire account—no matter how wild the market swings, it won’t break your bottom line.

**Second Trick: Multiple Timeframes + Contrarian Orders to Play Volatility**

This is the most core framework of my trading. Use daily charts to judge the main trend, 4-hour charts to find consolidation zones, and 15-minute charts for precise entry points. The key is to open two positions on the same coin: one following the trend with a breakout, with stop loss at key support on the daily chart; the other placing a contrarian order in the 4-hour overbought or oversold zones.

For example, last year, a popular coin plunged 90% in a single day. Using this dual-direction strategy, I actually made a 40% profit that day. This is the power of probabilistic thinking—not relying on guessing whether it will go up or down, but turning each wave of volatility into a trading opportunity.

**Third Trick: Mathematical Expectation in Capital Allocation**

Even the best technical analysis can't prevent a liquidation. I divide my account into 10 parts, using at most 1 part per trade, with total holdings not exceeding 3 parts. After losing two trades in a row, I stop immediately and take a break—never let emotions cause reckless gambling; when the account doubles, withdraw 20% to buy stable assets, and lock in profits.

Data speaks: my win rate is only 35%, but my risk-reward ratio is 5:1. What does this mean? Even if I only win 3.5 out of 10 trades, the overall mathematical expectation remains positive. That’s why I have confidence in both rising and falling markets.

**Core Logic**

The essence of making money on exchanges is not about guessing the right direction every time—that’s impossible. The real logic is: survive long enough until the true trend arrives.

Most people lose not because they lack effort, but because their strategy is flawed. It’s like wandering in a maze, no matter how hard you try, you can’t find the exit. A clear trading framework + strict risk management + a deep understanding of probability—this is the underlying logic for long-term stable profits in the crypto space.

The market offers opportunities every day; it’s up to you whether you use the right method to seize them.