#稳定币 The regulatory rhythm is back. The twelve-year history of policy battles is in front of us, and the pattern is actually quite clear: whenever market sentiment overheats and capital frenzy focuses on a certain track, risk warnings will be issued. In 2013, it was Bitcoin itself; in 2017, it was ICOs; in 2021, it was mining. Now, it's stablecoins and RWA.

The key variables can be clearly seen on-chain — USDT has already shown negative premium, indicating that mainland funds are rapidly exchanging and leaving. But this environment is different from the past. Wall Street ETFs and institutional holdings have long become the main force, and Bitcoin’s pricing power has already shifted to Western markets. Policies in 2013 could directly end the bull market; strong interventions in 2017 and 2021 did not change the long-term upward trend, and this lesson is very deep.

In the short term, panic selling will push prices down, and on-chain contract positions will also face pressure. But based on historical data, the long-term effect of policies diminishes — after each storm, what truly changes global consensus is the reallocation of capital and computing power. The core question this time is not whether prices will fall, but who will take over after the fall. If Wall Street institutions are still here, there is someone to defend this bottom.