2025-12-28 06:22:33

Christmas Week Market Summary: A Week of Consolidation and Lack of Momentum

This week, the market can be summarized in one word—dull. Bitcoin remains stuck in a high-range sideways pattern, with the US stock market closed for the holiday, leading to a sharp decline in trading volume. Both bulls and bears are hesitant to make moves. The price oscillates within a narrow range, testing support levels below, as everyone waits for the final signal at the end of the year.

Ethereum has performed relatively well, with its exchange rate clearly outperforming Bitcoin, showing signs of a slight catch-up rally. Although on-chain activity has decreased during the holiday, spot market activity remains quite strong, indicating that funds are still accumulating at the bottom.

Mark these key year-end dates:

December 31st, Wednesday, is a critical point—the end-of-year contract and options expiration. Quarterly options expiration often triggers significant volatility, making it a crucial moment for unwinding leveraged positions.

January 1st, Thursday, most traditional global markets are closed, resulting in extremely low liquidity. During this period, extreme price movements are more likely to occur, so caution is advised.

January 2nd, Friday, is the first actual trading day of the new year. Institutional investors typically start deploying new year positions on this day, setting the market tone for the year.

What’s the outlook? Here’s my view:

Bitcoin is likely to undergo a year-end shakeout, with short-term selling pressure. However, after January 2nd, as new funds enter the market, the "January effect" is expected to kick in, and a rebound is possible.

Ethereum is expected to continue its strength. According to capital rotation patterns, Ethereum usually delivers better Beta returns at the beginning of the year. As long as Bitcoin can hold steady, ETH is very likely to lead the rally among mainstream coins.

In simple terms, volatility during these few days around the New Year is inevitable, but the underlying logic of the new year’s market is bullish.

BTC0,52%

ETH0,76%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

8 Likes

Reward
8
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

rugdoc.eth

· 8h ago

Another dull and exhausting market, really annoying. During these New Year’s days, just wait to be hit with a spike. Liquidity is so low, I think it’s better to be cautious. --- ETH has indeed been strong this wave, much better than BTC. Should I go all in? --- On December 31st, the options expiration day, make sure to sleep well and not be startled awake by a leveraged liquidation. --- The real test is the opening on January 2nd. That’s when institutional investors come in, and we’ll see whether we’re going up or down. --- Honestly, just wait. Whether it’s a shakeout or a rebound, it needs to move eventually. This sideways trading is really boring. --- Talking about bottom-fishing is just talk. I don’t believe there’s much capital actually waiting. --- The January effect is a cliché that’s repeated every year. It would be surprising if it actually materialized this time. --- It looks like BTC might face some selling pressure in the short term. I’ve already cut my position in half. --- I believe ETH is stronger than BTC. The rotation pattern at the start of the year does exist, but don’t get your hopes up too high. --- During these New Year’s days, I’ll just hold my coins without trading. Anyway, with such low liquidity, there’s no way to stir up a big wave.

View OriginalReply0

blocksnark

· 8h ago

It's really stuffy, I even fell asleep while watching the market this week. The settlement on December 31st might be a bloody lesson, leverage traders be careful. --- ETH is indeed holding back a big move, it has that vibe. --- The January effect is back again, I believe in it every time. --- Honestly, everything will be settled by January 2nd, then we'll know who’s dressing up and who’s taking a bath. --- With such low liquidity, daring to insert a needle—some people really deserve to lose. --- I've heard the phrase "bottoming out to buy" many times; I don't know if this time is real or not. --- Is BTC really stable, or does it depend on ETH’s mood? It’s a bit reversed.

View OriginalReply0

Anon32942

· 8h ago

It's so boring this week, just waiting for January 2nd when institutions will enter the market to rescue it. Otherwise, there's really no way to watch these days.

View OriginalReply0

DefiSecurityGuard

· 8h ago

⚠️ CRITICAL: liquidity evaporates on jan 1st... classic setup for wick manipulation. seen this exploit pattern 47 times. not financial advice but honestly? those "support levels"? audit the math first. DYOR.

Reply0

DisillusiionOracle

· 8h ago

Bored to death, this week is just holiday mode, trading volume is ghostly... Wait until January 2nd to see who dares to make a move. ETH this wave is a bit interesting, indeed stronger than BTC, but can it really lead the rally? I have some reservations. Be careful with the delivery on the 31st, it's very easy to get crushed, better to set stop-losses. I've heard the January effect so many times, every year they say it, but what about the results... Can this time be different? BTC has been sideways for so long, I just want to know if it's accumulating strength or just fooling me into going long? It feels a bit risky. Funds are indeed buying at the bottom, but is this building a position or the last bag-holder? Who knows.

View OriginalReply0

token_therapist

· 8h ago

It's so boring, everyone is waiting for that final wave of signals. Instead of guessing the top or bottom, it's better to just curl up in bed. ETH this wave is indeed a bit tough, it really feels like it's about to take off at the beginning of the year. The delivery window on the 31st is indeed risky, the probability of a spike is quite high... we'll see who breaks first then.

View OriginalReply0