Macro analyst Luke Gromen: Why I sold most of my Bitcoin by the end of 2025

Compilation: Cognitive Alchemy** (Moderate edits included)**

Mid to late November 2025, macro analyst Luke Gromen, who has been long-term bullish on Bitcoin and gold, sold the vast majority of his Bitcoin holdings — not a complete liquidation, but a clear phased reduction, sparking much discussion in the market.

Yesterday, in his last video of 2025, Luke systematically explained the thought process behind this decision for the first time.

He discussed not just Bitcoin, but a whole set of interconnected judgments: why he remains cautious on Bitcoin in the short term, why he still favors precious metals, and how he interprets the emerging “multipolar world.”

These views may seem scattered, but they point to the same core issue: The macro environment we are familiar with is changing.

Over the past thirty-plus years: in the US markets, bonds have outperformed, Wall Street has outperformed, financial asset holders have benefited; meanwhile, manufacturing, industrial capacity, and the working class have been long squeezed.

Starting in 2025, with geopolitical competition, supply chain security, and industrial infrastructure becoming hard constraints, the policy objective function of the US government is being forced to change.

We are leaving a “financial-first” world and entering a “return to realpolitik” world.

You may completely disagree with Luke’s short-term outlook on Bitcoin — this is not a black-and-white choice. But this macro signal deserves serious attention from all long-term investors:

This world is no longer a “financial assets naturally riding the wave” world.

And for this reason, it’s necessary to remind ourselves of something often overlooked: Long-term investing does not mean always being fully in the market at every stage.

Sometimes, true long-term means knowing when to step back, retain judgment, and avoid being forced by short-term volatility into irreversible decisions at the wrong time.

If these discussions help you view the market more calmly in the coming period, then they have already served their purpose.

The rest is your own rhythm.

Below is a translation of Luke’s original words from this video, hoping to inspire you.

This is my last public update for 2025.

Honestly, this year has been quite exhausting; at times it feels like “aging according to a dog’s age.” But precisely because of that, I want to clarify some key judgments rather than leave room for more misunderstandings.

The most common question I’ve been asked recently is: Why did you sell most of your Bitcoin in the short term?

Let me clarify the most important point first: I have not liquidated my Bitcoin holdings. I remain long-term bullish on it.

But over the past month or so, I did sell the “big part” of my position, not due to emotion or price, but because my understanding of “sequence” has changed.

1. What I previously got right and what I got wrong

I have long believed that Bitcoin is the last “liquidity smoke alarm” still functioning properly within the global financial system. When liquidity begins to tighten, it tends to be the earliest to sound. This has been repeatedly validated over the past few years.

But I must also admit: My previous judgment of Bitcoin’s role in a “deflationary environment” was wrong.

I originally thought that in deflation, it would act more like a “neutral reserve asset.” But reality has shown me: when deflation truly arrives, Bitcoin’s trading behavior resembles that of a high-beta tech stock.

This is not a matter of stance, but a fact.

2. Why does Bitcoin become fragile in deflation?

The reason is actually quite simple, but many are reluctant to view it from this angle.

We are now in a highly leveraged global economy. In such a system, any asset can be understood within the “capital structure” framework.

When liquidity is abundant and asset prices rise → the “equity layer” at the bottom of the capital structure performs best.

When deflation occurs → the equity layer is hit first and hardest.

In 2008, the equity layers of CDOs and CLOs disappeared in this way.

And I am increasingly convinced: In the current system, Bitcoin is precisely the “equity layer.”

This is not a devaluation, but a realistic assessment of its position.

3. What truly made me change my view: AI and robots

If it were just a typical economic downturn, I might not sell.

What made me reconsider the sequence is seeing AI and robots creating an “exponential” deflationary force.

This round of deflation has three characteristics:

• It stems from technological efficiency, not demand cycles
• It begins to substantially impact employment, especially among young people
• It spreads very quickly

In this environment, any policy below a “nuclear-level money printing” is effectively tightening.

And in a tightening environment, what is the first to be pressured? Still the equity layer.

This is the core reason I became cautious on Bitcoin in the short term and sold most of my holdings.

4. I am not denying Bitcoin, but correcting the “sequence”

I still believe: deflation will eventually trigger a crisis, and that crisis will likely force large-scale monetary responses.

But I now think, this step will not come so quickly.

Frankly, I overestimated the speed of policy responses. I thought they would act sooner, but they haven’t, and I no longer believe they will act quickly.

So for me, it’s a matter of sequence: Before policies truly shift, before a “nuclear response” appears, I prefer to first exit the most fragile part of the capital structure, wait until prices reflect reality more fully, then re-enter.

Maybe I will be wrong. Maybe I am “overthinking.” But this is my most honest judgment at the moment.

5. Why am I more inclined to hold silver?

Silver is not an emotional judgment but a structural one.

What I see is: industrial demand continues to rise, supply-side has almost no capacity for rapid expansion, and even if prices rise, it’s hard to quickly generate effective supply response.

Unless we use a deep recession to destroy demand. But if that really happens, the world would revert faster to a “crisis—money printing” path.

From this perspective, silver’s logic is more direct and straightforward.

6. Behind this, there is a larger structural change

What I want to clarify this time is not just Bitcoin or silver.

What I truly want to say is: We are leaving a “financial-first” world and entering a “return to realpolitik” world.

Over the past thirty years: bonds have won, Wall Street has won, financial asset holders have benefited; meanwhile, manufacturing, industrial capacity, and the working class have been long squeezed.

Now, with national competition, supply chain security, and industrial infrastructure becoming hard constraints, policy’s objective function is being forced to change.

This does not mean a utopia of low interest rates and a weak dollar. It is more likely to be a world that is: more unstable, more friction, less “elegant,” but more real.

Conclusion: All I can do is clearly articulate what I see

I know these judgments are not popular, especially when sentiment remains highly optimistic.

But I have always believed: More important than making people feel comfortable is explaining the logic clearly.

I still respect Bitcoin’s long-term significance and am still preparing for that “true turning point.”

But now, I choose to stand aside first, to see clearly where this round of deflation truly leads.

This is the most honest explanation I can give at the end of 2025.