⚠️ Tonight, the pulse of the global capital markets depends on a decision in Tokyo. One data point, two possible paths: is it policy tightening that triggers the withdrawal of hundreds of billions of dollars in risk assets, or liquidity buffers that give the market a breather? Japan, the world's largest source of low-interest financing, is facing a turning point.

The reality is far more complex than expected. Japan's economy is caught in a dilemma:

On one hand, signals of recession are flashing—Q3 GDP annualized shrank by 2.3%, economic pressure is mounting. On the other hand, policy directions are inconsistent—the new government has introduced a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan to try to stabilize the economy, while the central bank's hawks are calling for rate hikes and have already begun reducing ETF holdings by 620 billion yen annually, accelerating toward policy normalization.

What does this mean for the crypto world? Everything points to the most critical variable—the yen interest rate.

If Japan's weak economy ultimately suppresses the central bank's rate hike pace, global liquidity pressures will ease, and the cheap yen will continue to flood the market, giving risk assets like Bitcoin some breathing room. But if hawks prevail and rate hikes accelerate, a chain reaction of arbitrage unwinding could hit the market within the same day.

The current strategy is actually simple: stay observant, hold onto mainstream cryptocurrencies, and wait for Japan's policy balance to settle. The macro drama is tumultuous, but the clarity of the decision-makers is the most valuable.