Crossing the Year-End Fog: How to Use the "Invalid Market" for Next Year’s Layout

Warning: The liquidity vacuum period is a high-risk trap for "bull and bear slaughter," as the market enters "strategic garbage time." True hunters do not shoot in silence.

Looking ahead to next week, with New Year’s Day approaching, there are no major macroeconomic data releases. Global financial markets will remain in an extremely low liquidity state, with trading volumes expected to be significantly below normal levels. The real start of the 2026 market may have to wait until the second week of January. The market is beginning to enter "strategic garbage time," a typical cycle node—transition between old and new year, liquidity vacuum, and lack of major data. For traders, this is not a time for battle but for weapon maintenance, map checking, and fortifying positions.

Key Dates:
Tuesday 03:00: Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;
Wednesday 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27;
Friday 22:45: US December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final.
(Due to Christmas and New Year’s Day following closely, no speeches from Federal Reserve officials are scheduled next week, nor from major central banks. Notably, the Fed will release the December meeting minutes.)

I. Core Interpretation of the "Typical Cycle Node" and Its Significance
1. Low Liquidity: A Double-Edged Sword—A Trap and a Touchstone
• Experience review: I have experienced similar vacuum periods during Christmas 2017 and New Year’s 2021. Typical features include: prices tend to "drift," small amounts of capital can create sharp spikes or false breakouts, but most fluctuations lack persistence and are quickly erased the next day.
• Implications:
Trap: If you attempt short-term trading or chasing gains now, the high bid-ask spreads and potential reverse volatility can quickly wipe out your capital. This is a high-risk period for "bull and bear slaughter."
Touchstone: The market’s true support and resistance levels are tested in this environment. Positions that are easily broken through and quickly recovered often signal the strongest or weakest points. This is the best window for us to observe and verify the robustness of key levels (e.g., BTC 85,000, ETH 2,700).

2. Fed Minutes: Not a "New Directive," but a "Reexamination of Old Tune"
• Nature of the behavior: The December meeting minutes, already priced in by the market, will not introduce new policies but will reveal details of the debate and sentiment among committee members.
• What to watch:
The strength of hawkish concerns: How many members express "high concern" about inflation or believe that "rate cuts are premature"? This determines the resistance to policy shifts in the first half of 2026.
• Focus of dovish arguments: Are they more worried about the employment market or do they see inflation as "temporary"? This affects the sensitivity of future data releases (e.g., non-farm payrolls).
• Implication: Don’t expect the minutes to trigger a unilateral trend. They are more likely to reinforce the current range—if hawkish, suppress the rebound ceiling (e.g., 90,000); if unexpectedly dovish, lift the bottom of the range. They are a "range stabilizer," not a "breakout trigger."

3. New Highs in Precious Metals and Stagnation in Crypto: Revealing Differences in Capital Attributes
• Deep logic: Gold and silver surge sharply, while Bitcoin remains volatile. This confirms our previous analysis: the current market is driven by "traditional macro-hedge" capital rather than "crypto-native growth" capital.
• Gold: Benefiting from "dollar credit doubts" and traditional safe-haven demand, attracting the most conservative incremental capital such as sovereign and pension funds.
• Bitcoin: Although long associated with the "digital gold" narrative, in the short term it is constrained by internal factors like ETF capital outflows and high leverage liquidations, leading to a "decoupling" from traditional capital flows.
• Implication: This is a strong signal indicating that the next crypto market breakout may require waiting for "internal leverage unwinding" to complete and for external macro conditions (rate cuts) to clarify, prompting capital to rebalance from gold and other traditional safe assets into higher-volatility crypto assets. This process takes time, perfectly aligning with our "patient deployment" tone.

II. Clear Orders for Your Battle Plan: From "Combat" to "Preparation"
Next week (December 30 - January 3), three core tasks:
1. Check Defensive Fortifications
Review all limit stop-loss orders (BTC 84,000-85,000, ETH 2,750, UNI 5.40, etc.) to ensure they are correctly set and not accidentally triggered or canceled.
2. Inventory Ammunition and Tactical Drills
① Count cash: Confirm your strategic reserve and all unused funds are safely accounted for.
② Scenario simulation: Mentally or on paper, simulate:
- If BTC drops below 85,000, what is your response? (Hold steady, wait for lower)
- If ETH suddenly surges to 3,200, do you chase? (No, wait for a pullback)
- If the market remains motionless, what is your mindset? (Calm, enjoy the holiday)
3. Deepen Intelligence Research
Use the market "silence period" to enhance your understanding. Investment ultimately is the realization of cognition; reading and research now inject confidence for future rallies. Before real volatility arrives, solidify your discipline responses through "paper trading," eliminating hesitation and fear in the moment. Make execution plans muscle memory. Ensure your "automatic ambush system" can strictly follow the plan in extreme price scenarios during low liquidity. This is your most important safety net.

III. Outlook and Connection: Preparing for the "2026 Market" Start
• Crucial: "The real 2026 market may have to wait until the second week of January."
• This means: Next week’s "garbage time" is the final and valuable preparation window before the decisive battle. When the second week of January arrives, traders return in full force, liquidity recovers, and the macro narrative for the new year officially begins, the market will choose its direction.
• Our task: To be that trader next week—well-prepared, well-stocked, with a clear plan and calm mindset. While others scramble amid holiday volatility, you follow your checklist; while others rush to interpret new data after returning in January, you are already well-versed in your layout.

Remember: Bull markets are born in despair and rise amid hesitation. The current market is in a dull dormant period between "despair" and "hesitation." The best hunters know to conserve their strength while prey hibernates, rather than firing wildly into the silent jungle. The real battle is coming after the calm.