What will the US stock market look like in 2026? To put it simply—it's becoming increasingly difficult to make money just by chasing the index.

Starting this year, the Federal Reserve's era of liquidity injection has ended, and a new set of rules has taken over. Previously, liquidity pushed valuations higher, and even companies with poor fundamentals could be炒. Now, that's no longer the case. Money has become smarter and is only flowing into companies with real performance, low debt, and strong moats. Those small-cap stocks relying solely on concepts and lacking cash flow? They are being kicked out of the game.

While the index can reach new highs, don't expect most individual stocks to follow suit. The heavyweight leaders (tech, consumer, high-end manufacturing) will provide support, but the days for small and mid-cap stocks are tough. You'll notice a strange phenomenon—when the market hits new highs, 70% of individual stocks are still trading at low levels, which is a sign of divergence.

Which sectors are thriving? Hardcore technology is in the first tier—AI, semiconductors, computing infrastructure—these have real industry dividends and tangible performance. Essential消费,医疗创新,能源基础设施 are also doing well, all driven by genuine growth in performance. Conversely, those hot-topic stocks from yesterday, high-valuation bubbles, and边缘化的周期股 are experiencing rapid capital outflows, with阴跌 becoming the norm.

But there are risks too. Geopolitical tensions, recurring inflation, and companies missing earnings expectations could all cause setbacks. The low-volatility, slow-rising days of 2025 are unlikely to return. In 2026, volatility will pick up, and pullbacks will be common. Those chasing highs are most likely to get caught.

To sum up the logic: the US stock market has upgraded from a "liquidity-driven bull" to a "performance-driven bull"—the rules have changed. The winners in 2026 are clear—ditch small caps, embrace the leaders; don't obsess over index gains, focus on stock quality. Greed will only lead to getting割.