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The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently sent a clear signal in his speech at the Economic Planning Agency—interest rate hikes will continue next year. This is not just a policy adjustment but an official declaration of the end of the three-decade-long era of negative interest rates.
His statement was straightforward: prices have risen, wages are following suit, and real interest rates are at historic lows. Continuing to maintain ultra-loose policies is no longer tenable. As the last major central bank in the world to hold zero interest rates, Japan's shift signals a significant change.
What does this change specifically mean? First, it marks the end of an era. The global financial landscape driven by ultra-low financing costs is gradually disintegrating. Second, Ueda explicitly hinted that rate hikes are not a one-time move but the beginning of a foreseeable, sustained tightening cycle. Finally, as the Bank of Japan steadily raises financing costs, large carry trades based on low-cost yen financing—buying high-yield assets—will face increasing pressure to unwind and capital will flow back.
With even the most dovish central banks worldwide turning hawkish, the sectors attracting capital have fundamentally changed. For risk assets like cryptocurrencies, there may be short-term liquidity tightening pressures, but in the long run, this could also drive funds to seek new growth opportunities, including in digital assets and related fields.