December 28 BTC Core Conclusion: Narrow fluctuation between $86,500 and $88,800, short-term slightly bearish, no strong trend, mainly trading within high reward-to-risk zones, strictly controlling position size within 30%, beware of low liquidity spikes.

1. Key Price Levels (4H/Daily chart, as of December 28 12:00)

• Support: $86,500 (4H strong support, tested multiple times), $85,000 (psychological/volume cluster), $84,000 (stop-loss level), $80,500 (strong support)

• Resistance: $88,300-$88,800 (20-day moving average/rebound high), $90,000 (integer level), $96,000 (maximum pain point for options)

2. Core Indicators and Patterns

• Trend: 4H ADX<20, no strong trend, -DI slightly greater than +DI, bears slightly favored; daily chart under the 20-day moving average remains pressured, high-level correction continues

• Pattern: 4H bearish rising wedge not broken, high probability of downward breakout

• Indicators: MACD positive histogram shrinking, momentum weakening; RSI neutral, no obvious divergence; Bollinger Bands narrowing, midline resistance significant

• Volume: Weekend liquidity relatively low, breakout requires volume confirmation, beware of false breakouts

3. Executable Strategies (with risk control)

1. Short Strategy (priority, high reward-to-risk)

◦ Entry: Light short position on rebound to $88,300-$88,800

◦ Stop-loss: $89,000 (upper edge of 20-day moving average, exit if volume breaks through)

◦ Take profit: $86,500 (partial reduction), second target $85,000, below which consider $84,000

2. Long Strategy (re-enter after stabilization)

◦ Entry: Light long position on pullback to $86,500-$86,800 for stabilization (e.g., 15-minute bullish close)

◦ Stop-loss: $86,000 (if volume breaks down, abandon)

◦ Take profit: $88,300 (20-day moving average), break above to $88,800, then volume increase to target $90,000

3. Breakout Strategy

◦ Upward breakout: stabilize above $90,000 with volume, chase longs, target $92,000, stop-loss $89,500

◦ Downward breakout: break below $86,000 with volume, chase shorts, target $84,000, stop-loss $86,500

4. Risk Control and Execution Points

• Position size: single position ≤10%, total position ≤30%, avoid heavy leverage

• Timing: avoid opening new positions during low liquidity periods (22:00 - 4:00 next day), set stop-loss in advance for existing positions

• Signals: breakout requires volume + two consecutive 4H confirmations, no chasing or holding through false signals