Next week, three data releases will directly reshape the market rhythm for 2026—this is not just my opinion; market participants are watching these closely.

First, Tuesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes. December has already seen rate cuts, but the latest minutes reveal a hawkish tone, with clear signals of slowing rate hikes and ongoing inflation risks. The question is, will the minutes further reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance? If so, rate cut expectations for the first half of next year will need to be fully adjusted.

Wednesday brings the initial jobless claims data. The labor market has always been a key focus for the Fed. Last week’s claims unexpectedly dropped to 214,000, better than expected—indicating the employment market remains resilient. If the data continues to stay strong, the Fed will have more reasons to "take it slow."

Friday’s manufacturing PMI final reading. This is a barometer of economic vitality. The December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is at 51.8. If the final confirms manufacturing is still in expansion territory (above 50), it tells a story: the economy has a solid foundation, and policy doesn’t need to rush.

Macroeconomic turning points often test risk assets the most. On one hand, hawkish minutes may temporarily suppress risk appetite; but from another perspective, strong economic data combined with the upcoming announcement of the new Fed chair nomination could introduce uncertainty, laying the groundwork for longer-term easing expectations.

For the crypto market, assets like $BTC, $ZEC, and $ZEN will face another round of testing. When traditional financial markets are driven by these data points, the resilience of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as independent value carriers will be revealed in their performance over the coming days. Finding direction amid volatility—perhaps that’s what long-term players should be focusing on.