#央行政策 Seeing this analysis about the four-year cycle of Bitcoin, I have a few words to say. Over the years, I've experienced too many stories of "halving must lead to a rise," and every time someone treats the cycle theory as gospel. But what happened? The market after 2021 has already taught us that historical patterns can change.

Central bank policies, Federal Reserve attitudes, and institutional investors' caution—these are the real rules of the game now. 10x Research is right; institutional investors have already taken over the pricing power, but they won't FOMO like retail investors. When liquidity tightens, any cycle becomes meaningless.

The most painful part is that many project teams are still using the old rhetoric of "four-year cycle" and "halving rally" to deceive newcomers. I've seen too many people get caught because of this mechanized thinking. Sincerely, I advise everyone: don't obsess over sacred cycles. Focus on understanding policy changes and capital flows. An interest rate cut by the central bank does not necessarily mean the coin price will rise; that logic is outdated.

During sideways consolidation, it's actually the most testing of patience. Staying safe and alive is much more important than chasing a meteoric rise.