Recently, I've been observing some interesting data on user acquisition from exchanges. The proportion of new users on various platforms in 2025 has dropped to 5%, the lowest in recent years.

Honestly, this looks quite concerning. Major leading exchanges have been very aggressive this year—Alpha-type airdrops, referral rebates, trading competitions, and all kinds of creative activities are being rolled out one after another, making it the most intense effort in years. But what’s the result? The market’s response has been quite lukewarm.

The underlying logic is actually not hard to understand. With fewer new users entering, it means fresh blood in the market is drying up. Most of the remaining users are veterans. Many of them have been trapped, cut, or lost money before, so their mindset has changed. They are more cautious, and their trading enthusiasm is not as strong.

If this trend continues—say, in 2026, the proportion of new users further declines—liquidity will fall into a vicious cycle. Without a steady influx of new users and continuous injection of new funds, market depth will deteriorate further. Long-term losses cause old users to gradually exit, leaving only a deadlock. When new growth disappears and the existing volume reaches a dead end, the market is not far from decline.

Head assets like BTC might still hold up, but the vitality of the entire ecosystem will be greatly diminished. Right now is a good window for observation.