2025-12-28 02:23:12

💥The brutal truth of the crypto market: surviving is winning

Five years of trading have led me to a realization — in this market, not all participants will make it to the end. When candlesticks fluctuate like an electrocardiogram, and news becomes the front line of harvest, every entrant should understand: this is not a paradise for wealth creation, but a survival game.

Making money is important, but staying alive is even more crucial. Here are three survival rules that time has taught me.

**1. Start with risk structure, not opportunity**

Don’t rush to look at the top gainers list. First, check the liquidation data.

The true starting point of investment is not “how much can this rise,” but “how deep can it fall.” Before building a position, ask yourself three questions: What is the most likely way this project could collapse? How long can I endure zero liquidity? Have I clearly written down my stop-loss trigger points?

You’ll find that most people die in vague hopes, while those who survive live within clear risk boundaries.

**2. Identify the true anchors in bubbles**

Every market cycle has popular stories — DeFi, NFT, GameFi, RWA… Narrative rotations never stop. But projects that can survive cycles rely on only two anchors:

Technical anchor: Has it achieved true non-fungibility?
Economic anchor: Can the token mechanism operate coherently?

When the deviation between narrative and anchor exceeds 90%, that’s not innovation — that’s a warning. Bubbles themselves are not scary; what’s frightening is being unaware that you’re standing inside one.

**3. Position size is a thermometer, not a number**

Position management is not a fixed formula but a dynamic response to market conditions.

Extreme fear (Greed & Fear Index <20): Allocate 40% to mainstream coins + 60% stablecoins.
Normal fluctuation period (Index 20–60): 30% mainstream coins + 20% rotation strategies + 50% stablecoins.
Frenzy top period (Index >80): Gradually realize profits, keeping only the “profit capitalized” positions.

History repeats human nature, but it does not repeat candlestick patterns. Looking at past charts, you’ll see — no one truly learns to predict the future from history, but at least you can learn not to fall into the same pit again.

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AirdropAnxiety

· 7h ago

Honestly, the thing I fear most is stop-losses; I just like to hold on stubbornly with a bad hand. Wait, no, your risk framework actually has some substance; it's much more reliable than those who boast about daily gains. I've noted the 90% bubble deviation; it feels like a lifesaver. The analogy of the position thermometer is brilliant. I used to treat fixed allocations as gospel. Honestly, I never thought about the prerequisite of survival before; I was always thinking about how to double my money. These three survival rules sound like nonsense, but very few people actually look at the margin call data. I just want to ask, have you really never hit a 90-degree red flag in five years?

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CryptoSurvivor

· 7h ago

My comment: Surviving is indeed more important than making quick money. I've heard this many times, but few actually do it. To be honest, most people can't even set stop-losses properly; one tremble and they wipe out everything. The theory of position sizing is good, but no one can really resist the temptation of a fear index of 20, including myself. How do you find an anchor point in a bubble? I think if it were that easy, it wouldn't be called a bubble.

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LostBetweenChains

· 7h ago

Well said, but most people will still go all-in after reading.

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EternalMiner

· 7h ago

Well said, longevity is the real winner. That hits close to home. It also reminds me of last year's liquidation wave—so many people lost everything because they didn't set proper stop-loss points... they deserve it.

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CexIsBad

· 7h ago

Honestly, living a long life is not wrong to say, but the reality is that most people simply can't endure until that day. --- The perspective of liquidation data is good, but no one pays attention during big drops. --- Risk boundaries? Sounds easy, but execution is hell. --- RWA is now starting to tell stories, feels like another wave of cutting leeks. --- The analogy of the position thermometer is excellent, but the problem is that human nature always wins over the index. --- The things I realized in five years, I lost everything in two years and still didn't understand them so thoroughly. --- That greed and fear index set? When the index is in place, the psyche collapses, and you end up bottom-fishing on the edge of a knife. --- Writing stop-losses on paper and actually executing them, there's a hundred thousand miles in between. --- Everyone is right, but the key is, who will remember these when the next market comes? --- The phrase "being unaware in a bubble" hits too close to home. Those still betting on RWA are exactly that.

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