#机构投资者战略布局 Seeing this perspective, flashes of the scenes from late 2017 come to mind. Back then, everyone was discussing the halving cycle as if it were an unbreakable law etched in the heavens. The three peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 stood there, with data so impressive it seemed as if the halving event was a universal law of this market. But looking back now, Markus Thielen’s words hit the nail on the head — the cycle hasn't disappeared; it’s just that the soul has left the body.

The real change occurred at the moment institutions entered the market. I’ve experienced the era dominated by retail investors, when sentiment, FOMO, and fear could drive everything. Now, it’s different. Although institutional investors have become the main force, they bring with them the shackles of rationality. The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates should theoretically flood the market with liquidity, with funds pouring in like a tide, but this year’s situation is cold and icy. Institutions no longer rely on a single signal; they are weighing a whole set of complex variables such as policy swings, liquidity tightness, and risk asset pricing. The pace of capital inflow has slowed, and the collective unconscious that once propelled the market into a parabola has vanished.

Range-bound oscillations and sideways consolidation sound very ordinary, but they precisely indicate a profound turning point — the market is shifting from price discovery to price absorption. The weakening of the halving’s driving force isn’t bad news; on the contrary, it signifies that the market is maturing. For those accustomed to intense volatility, this dullness indeed tests patience. Before liquidity improves, we must hone our skills in this gray area.