Why 2026 will be crucial for the approval of cryptocurrency regulation in the US

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Why 2026 Will Be Crucial for the Approval of Cryptocurrency Regulation in the US Original Link: The year of 2026 promises to be decisive for the future of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States, with Congress facing the challenge of passing comprehensive legislation for the sector before midterm elections begin to dominate the political agenda.

According to analysis from sources connected to the crypto industry, they estimate a 50% to 60% chance that a comprehensive bill will become law next year, reflecting a mix of cautious optimism and structural uncertainties.

The optimism is mainly anchored in ongoing discussions between Democrats and Republicans, something that has not been common in crypto debates in recent years. Kevin Wysocki, Head of Public Policy at Anchorage Digital, said he assigns about a 50% probability of a law passing in 2026, highlighting the growing dialogue between the parties as a positive point.

At the same time, he emphasizes that the bill is complex because it involves banking rules, securities, and commodities regulations simultaneously, making negotiations more difficult.

In the Senate, efforts are focused on a market structure bill that aims to regulate the cryptocurrency sector comprehensively. The Senate Banking Committee is working on a draft that proposes dividing jurisdiction between the SEC and the CFTC, as well as creating the concept of “accessory assets” to clarify which cryptocurrencies should not be treated as securities.

In parallel, the Senate Agriculture Committee, responsible for overseeing the CFTC, presented last month a proposal that expands the agency’s powers. If advanced, both texts will still need to be reconciled before a vote in the full chamber.

There was an expectation that the Banking Committee would hold a hearing and move forward with the bill this year, but this did not happen. A committee spokesperson stated that negotiations with Democrats have progressed and that the current plan is to mark up and vote on the bill in early 2026. According to him, significant progress has been made toward bipartisan legislation on the digital asset market structure.

Stablecoins and DeFi

Despite this, sensitive points remain that hinder consensus. One of the main conflicts involves the regulation of stablecoins that offer yields.

Banking sector associations argue that the GENIUS law, passed mid-year, left important loopholes by not explicitly banning interest payments, which could turn stablecoins into savings and credit instruments, distorting competition with traditional banks. Industry representatives, on the other hand, defend that the ability to offer yields is part of legitimate competition within the financial system.

Another point of tension concerns decentralized finance (DeFi) and the application of anti-money laundering rules, as well as the question of which regulator should oversee certain tokens. Cody Carbone, CEO of Digital Chamber, said there is concern in the sector about the possibility of the SEC having the final say on whether an asset is a security or a commodity, reminiscent of the tougher stance the agency has taken in previous administrations.

Negotiations are also affected by delicate political issues, such as potential conflicts of interest in the crypto sector. Estimates suggest there are significant profits from ventures related to DeFi projects and stablecoins, as well as participation in mining companies.

Senator Cynthia Lummis stated in December that she tried, along with Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego, to include ethics provisions in the bill, but the proposal was rejected by the White House.

Another factor weighing on negotiations is the downsizing of the CFTC. Over the past year, four commissioners have left or announced their departure, leaving only one Republican commissioner and the acting chair. For Carbone, this makes it risky to grant even more regulatory power to an agency that should have five members, an argument used by Democrats in discussions.

Difficult Calendar

The political calendar is seen as one of the biggest obstacles. After potential approval in the Senate Banking Committee, the bill will still need to be unified with the Agriculture Committee’s version, voted on in the full chamber, and then reconciled with the House’s bill, known as Clarity, approved mid-year.

According to Carbone, if there are no concrete advances by January, the outlook becomes concerning. Wysocki believes that lawmakers essentially have the first half of the year to act before the midterm election campaign gains momentum, leaving only a small window after the election.

There is also a risk of new budget disputes. Congress recently approved temporary government funding after a 43-day shutdown ended in November, but this agreement expires on 01/30/2026. If no new consensus is reached, a shutdown could again halt legislative work, including crypto debates.

Nevertheless, regulation advocates believe some progress is inevitable. Rebecca Liao, CEO of Saga and former political campaign member, said there are Democrats strongly committed to passing legislation for the sector, although time is short and the political environment volatile. She believes that if legislation does not advance in 2026, the push for regulatory clarity will continue, especially as major financial institutions deepen their involvement in digital assets.