Yesterday, while checking the market, I noticed a bunch of newbies holding full positions in contracts to go long, and their reasoning made me want to laugh—"US-China talks will go smoothly, so the coin must rise." The logical flaw here is huge. Did they forget about the trade war black swan last October?

Let's review that "bloodbath": After the Trump administration announced tariffs, Bitcoin dropped from $122,000 to $103,900. The liquidation amount within 24 hours reached $19.3 billion, and 1.67 million traders were completely wiped out. Even stablecoins like USDe lost their peg, falling to $0.65. Now claiming the negotiations are "going smoothly"? That's premature. Instead of blind optimism, it's better to learn how to survive first.

The logic behind that crash was actually quite clear, and breaking it down into three steps makes it obvious: First, the US signals tariff escalation → global risk assets turn cold → US stocks fall first, and cryptocurrencies follow risk-off; second, the contract market leverage was already high, with funding rates staying elevated for a long time, so when prices dropped, it immediately triggered mass liquidations, leading to chain reactions of forced liquidations; third, market makers shrink liquidity to control risk, causing price volatility to be amplified infinitely, and exchanges even experienced lag.

And now? The market environment has many similarities to last year. Bitcoin has retreated from its high, contract leverage remains high, and the market is extremely sensitive to trade news. Once negative signals appear, last year's drama could replay.

Looking at current position data, risk signals are already flashing yellow. While contract open interest and funding rates are not as extreme as in October last year, they still remain at high levels of fluctuation. It's like a taut string—any external shock could snap it at any moment. Instead of guessing the outcome of negotiations, it's better to think clearly: Can your position withstand a limit-down? Have you set your stop-loss points? That’s the real insurance for survival.