Bitcoin has just experienced a massive options expiration (approximately $23 billion in contracts), but the market's reaction was not as intense as expected. Rather than a strong breakout, it has fallen into a typical range-bound weak oscillation—that's the real picture right now.

The current price is testing a critical zone: the bottom range between $86,500 and $85,000. In simple terms, this is the decisive battle point between bulls and bears. Looking upward, there is significant resistance around $90,000. If an effective breakout cannot be achieved, the price will continue to fluctuate within the broad range of $85,000 to $94,000.

The options market has provided us with a lot of information. After many contracts expired, open positions were reset, and volatility has eased accordingly. Interestingly, traders are selling puts at low levels and selling calls at high levels—that's a typical volatility harvesting strategy. The result is that put options around $85,000 form a potential support, while call options near $100,000 are capping the upside. This structure signals that the market is quite cautious about large short-term volatility.

What do on-chain indicators and capital flows say? The support from short-term holders' cost basis has been repeatedly confirmed, which is good. The selling pressure from long-term holders is also weakening, and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are recovering. It looks somewhat stable. But there's a hidden risk—institutional buying is weakening, and ETFs are still experiencing net outflows. Coupled with reduced liquidity during the holiday season, breaking through may not be so easy.

From a technical perspective, let's review again. Bitcoin has been repeatedly rejected in the $88,000 to $89,000 range, forming a clear "resistance rejection and pullback" pattern. The 50-day moving average and other technical factors further reinforce this oscillation. If the price can hold above $85,000, there may still be a rebound opportunity; otherwise, caution is needed for further downside risk.