The four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin originates from its unique halving mechanism. As is well known, Bitcoin's total supply is capped at 21 million coins, and the circulating supply has reached 19,967,800 coins so far, leaving little room for new issuance.

This is the core issue—the impact of Bitcoin halving on the market has significantly diminished. Each halving repeats itself, but market reactions are decreasing. Using past trend patterns to predict current market conditions simply doesn't work.

What should we really pay attention to? The depreciation trend of the US dollar. Don't just focus on on-chain data and technical analysis; the macroeconomic environment is the key factor determining Bitcoin's stage. When the US dollar strengthens, crypto assets come under pressure; when the dollar depreciates, Bitcoin has real room to rise. This is the correct way to understand the current market situation.