2025-12-27 19:22:05

Recently, discussions about silver and cryptocurrencies have been particularly heated, with many people debating whether they should chase silver or compare it to cryptocurrencies. As an analyst who has been observing both markets for a long time, I want to honestly say: this is not the real bull market for silver, but rather a stress test of the credit system. Instead of obsessing over whether to chase or not, it's better to first clarify the underlying logic of the silver market.

Many people hold three fatal misconceptions about silver, which need to be corrected first.

**Misconception 1: Silver is a substitute for gold and can be chased after arbitrarily.** This idea is completely wrong. Gold is purely a financial asset, its value driven by market consensus. Silver, on the other hand, is a dual-attribute asset—both "industrial + financial"—supported by real demand. Currently, investment demand for silver has risen to 37%, but this also means the speculative atmosphere is extremely intense. Looking back at history, during the Hunt brothers' manipulation of the silver market in 1980, prices plummeted 80% in just six weeks, and those who chased high were all trapped.

**Misconception 2: Buying physical silver casually can make money.** The reality is far from ideal. Many channels selling physical silver are now sold out, and even if you can buy some, there is an additional markup of 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per gram, plus a wait for delivery. This kind of poor liquidity is no different from small-cap "air coins" in the crypto market—easy to enter, hard to exit. When the market reverses, you'll find there’s no one willing to take the other side.

**Misconception 3: When silver rises, cryptocurrencies will fall.** The two markets are not in opposition. Essentially, both are funds seeking safe-haven outlets; just different scales of capital make different choices. Large funds can very well allocate to both markets simultaneously, and there’s no conflict.

**Now, let’s look at the core issue in the silver market.** On the surface, it’s about price fluctuations, but the deeper problem is actually delivery capacity. The so-called "unallocated silver" in the London market is essentially a credit certificate— the same silver bar being double-counted across multiple ledgers. This operational mode has long been criticized in the crypto space.

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ForumLurker

· 7h ago

Silver bar double counting? Isn't that just fractional reserve in traditional finance? Bitcoin has already solved this problem long ago.

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ContractCollector

· 7h ago

Here comes the argument about cutting leeks again. Silver is so illiquid that it's爆炸, better to go all in crypto honestly. How to sell physical silver? Waiting to die? It's more exciting to play with on-chain assets. Talking about something from 1980, the market has already changed. This comparison is meaningless. So, silver is just a false safe haven. The real allocation should be BTC and Ethereum. Why do people still believe in the London silver market's repeated bookkeeping tricks? In an era where everything on the chain is transparent, still playing this game.

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TopEscapeArtist

· 7h ago

Wait, I need to review the Hunter brothers' operation in 1980... An 80% crash? Damn, isn't this just the deja vu of us buying in at high levels...

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ProofOfNothing

· 7h ago

Haha, this analogy is spot on. The double accounting in London's silver market is essentially no different from exchanges misappropriating user assets. --- The case from 1980 was just outrageous. Those chasing highs should really look at history. --- The premium on physical silver is truly extreme; escaping is even harder. --- The concept of stress testing the credit system hits the nail on the head. --- The dual nature actually becomes a double risk. I never thought of this logic before. --- The key is that no one is discussing why silver bars can be double-counted. That’s just too absurd. --- It's normal for large funds to allocate to two different sectors simultaneously; there’s no conflict at all. --- Poor liquidity = the final blow, just like the套路 of some project teams. --- I just want to ask, are people buying physical silver truly hedging or just wanting to gamble? --- Industrial demand accounts for just over 60%, the rest is speculative chips. A blow-up is inevitable sooner or later.

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MevHunter

· 7h ago

Haha, same old story. Silver liquidity is so poor, yet you still dare to chase? Might as well go all in on ETH for a more satisfying experience. --- Wait, that London market's double-entry bookkeeping... Isn't that just fractional reserve banking in traditional finance? Even more rampant than in crypto. --- In 1980, my grandfather got caught in the Hunt brothers' scheme. He told me about it for twenty years. Is anyone still willing to repeat the same mistake? --- Physical silver marked up by 0.3 to 0.7 is ridiculous. It's better to dollar-cost average into BTC, which has strong liquidity. --- The key point is, no one says silver and cryptocurrencies are hedging assets. The logic makes sense, and their allocations don't conflict. --- Anyway, I won't touch it. It'll only be interesting once the spot delivery collapses. --- My goodness, this is exactly the same as some tokens' liquidity issues—easy to get in, but you get trapped when trying to exit. --- Dual attributes sound advanced, but in reality, it just means the price isn't anchored on either end. --- When silver rises, crypto is still climbing. Just look at ETH's trend, and you'll understand. --- That London system is truly ridiculous—printing like paper money.

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CommunityLurker

· 7h ago

Are you here to cut the leeks again? Sounds nice, but actually just advising people not to chase silver. Physical silver's liquidity is really unmatched, even worse than some shitcoins. The incident in 1980 is long gone. Can the current situation be the same? Repetitive bookkeeping in the London market? Feels like silver is even darker than on-chain. Having positions in two sectors at the same time doesn't conflict? Funds are always limited, right? That's too absolute. So, should I chase or not? Just want to hear a straightforward answer.

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