Cryptocurrency market time flows indeed move quickly. I haven't updated in a few days, and it feels like another cycle has passed😂. Today's performance of ZEC is worth paying attention to—completely independent of the overall market with a strong upward trend. A couple of days ago, I was discussing ZEC with a friend and observing it; it is one of the few large-cap altcoins recently that I remain bullish on. Today, I want to take this opportunity to clarify my thoughts on this wave of market movement. The article is a bit long, but the content is worth patiently reading.

My overall attitude towards the market is somewhat bearish, and I have been expecting a decline. However, starting from the 25th, my view on ZEC changed clearly—on that day, I judged the main force's intention to support the price based on capital data and on-chain performance. That’s also why, although I was bullish on ZEC that day, I didn’t enter immediately—because of the bearish market expectations, for a coin of this size, I insist on waiting until the market’s downward expectation actually materializes before looking for entry opportunities. So, I missed the rally from 448 USDT on the 25th to today’s 520 USDT, but I believe this was a reasonable choice. Interestingly, today someone in the group wanted to short at 465 USDT but I stopped him; instead, he reversed and chased long at 466 USDT, and finally the price short-term rallied to 510 USDT (this move is quite interesting).

ZEC’s capital performance is indeed very obvious—the main force increased long positions to support the price on the 25th, which is very clear. Currently, ZEC is definitely not a target for shorting. Even though I still hold short positions on a dozen or so altcoins, I wouldn’t recommend everyone to short ZEC. If you really want to short ZEC, it might be more efficient to short the overall market instead.

Let me talk about the long logic: Based on my judgment that the market still has room to decline, ZEC is likely to experience complex oscillations during the short-term correction of the market, and then gradually form a main upward wave after the market stops falling. According to technical patterns, I expect ZEC to oscillate within the 470-530 range—this rhythm is somewhat similar to the situation when I recommended chasing ZEC from 300 USDT on October 26 last year. If this expectation materializes, you can gradually enter in batches at the bottom of the red box, with a very small stop-loss space; or wait for the potential market decline window to appear, and then look for opportunities to enter at the ZEC insertion points. Missing today’s rally doesn’t mean you should FOMO; I believe the market makers’ plans for ZEC are definitely not limited to just 520.