Market consensus is often the most expensive contrarian indicator. When everyone is eagerly anticipating the same event, reality has long since taken a different turn.

This morning, I received three private messages, all asking the same question: "Should I clear my positions now and wait for a crash?" Watching these over my coffee, I couldn't help but laugh. The collective psychology of the market is indeed interesting—when the majority are unanimously betting on one direction, the market tends to do the opposite.

It's like a script in a TV drama; viewers are betting that the next episode will be a tragedy, but the plot unexpectedly takes a turn. The current crypto market is pretty much like that. Those sitting in the corner waiting to "pick up bargains" might actually be the driving force behind the market rebound.

**Why is the "waterfall expectation" so uniform?**

Just scroll through any financial platform, and the pessimistic tone almost dominates the discourse: geopolitical risks, economic pressures, technical weakness... These narratives are so uniform, like an echo chamber, growing louder and louder.

I still remember March 2020 during the COVID-19 outbreak, when market sentiment was even more desperate than now. Bitcoin briefly fell below $4,000, and everyone was waiting for a deeper dip. But then, unexpectedly, the market reversed and surged. History doesn't simply repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

What's more interesting is that data shows retail traders' short positions have recently increased significantly, while institutional investors are quietly accumulating. The divergence between "smart money" and "public sentiment" is itself a signal that shouldn't be ignored.

**Hidden positive signs**

Behind the sea of despair, there are actually several key indicators that most people have long overlooked…