Recently, on-chain data has once again pointed to an old question: Can Bitcoin really escape the fate of the 4-year cycle? Analyst Joao Wedson made a prediction based on the repeating fractal cycle chart, suggesting that the current bear market may have just begun. According to his analysis, the next cycle bottom will appear in early October 2026, with a price target locked between $41,500 and $45,000. In other words, from the current price level, Bitcoin could still drop nearly 50%.

This sounds frightening, but upon closer reflection, it's not just idle speculation. The "rhyme" pattern of historical cycles makes it hard to say there's no trace at all. If this pattern really plays out, then fall 2026 could be a good window for those looking to accumulate long-term. However, this is ultimately a prediction based on historical extrapolation, and no one dares to guarantee 100%. Traders should prepare psychologically and be ready for possible long-term adjustments or further declines.