How to view XAU this week?

Last week, global geopolitical conflicts intensified, and the international situation was unpredictable, fully stimulating gold's safe-haven properties. As incremental funds gradually entered the market next week, the capital support for the upward movement of gold prices will become more solid. Meanwhile, the Fed's dovish expectations have already pushed down the US dollar index, and once the negative correlation between gold and the dollar is amplified, the elasticity will be quite considerable—directly targeting the 4600 level is definitely feasible.

Let's analyze from a technical perspective. After rising from the lows, XAU has been running close to the upward trendline, with lows rising and highs being refreshed, forming a standard bullish pattern. Each time the price retraces to the trendline, it finds support, indicating strong bullish momentum. There are no signs of trend reversal, and this continuous strength lays a solid foundation for breaking through 4600.

Using Fibonacci retracement levels for calculation. Starting from the low of 4182, it has already broken through the 0.786 retracement level (4462.05) and the 4500 integer level, which have transformed from "resistance" to "support," becoming stepping stones for further upward movement. The extension calculation shows that the current high of 4549.96 is approaching the 1.236 extension of the previous rally, with the next target zone aligned with the 4600 integer level. The technical target and psychological level resonate, which is a strong signal.

Interestingly, after stabilizing above 4500, XAU did not pull back for consolidation but instead chose to consolidate sideways—this is a sign of a "strong market with shallow corrections." With only 50 points remaining to reach 4600 from the current high, and as long as the bullish trend remains intact, this breakout inertia is fully capable of pushing the price to the target.