Santa Claus行情 often isn't the endgame; instead, it serves as a prelude to next year's performance.

Looking back at the history of the S&P 500 in 1979, this logic becomes particularly clear: if it surges at the end of December, or if the first five trading days of the new year are bullish, or if the "January barometer" continues to strengthen, or even if the market rises in the two months after the Spring Festival, then the average return and win rate for that year tend to significantly outperform. Interestingly, years where both January and February are up have an annual probability of rising as high as 97%, with gains far exceeding the average.

The opposite examples are equally sobering—years with weak January or those that start to adjust after New Year's week tend to struggle by year's end, with average returns struggling and win rates dropping.

For investors, these indicators are essentially like regular "market health check reports," helping you gauge whether the market's risk appetite is truly healthy. But frankly, no matter how beautiful historical patterns are, they can't change one fact—they are only for reference. Don't rely on them to guarantee profits. The market always has ways to surprise you.