#美联储回购协议计划 【Recent Market Analysis and Trading References】

The recent two weeks have basically been a pattern of falling from high levels and repeatedly bouncing at the bottom. After the peak at 12.14 on December 25th, the price hasn't gone back up. Currently, there are signs of stabilization at lower levels, but don't get too optimistic too early.

Looking at the candlestick charts, although there has been a small rebound in the past two days, overall it is still oscillating within the original downtrend channel, and key resistance levels have not been broken through. What does this indicate? It shows that the bears still have strength.

On the indicator level, it's even clearer—4-hour MACD's DIF and DEA are approaching the zero line quickly, and the green bars are shrinking, indicating that the selling pressure is weakening, and the bulls may start to gain momentum. However, the daily MACD remains weak, so don't get overly optimistic yet. The RSI is around 48.75, in the middle range, with no extreme overbought or oversold signals. Interestingly, the daily RSI has been gradually climbing from just above 40, showing signs of recovery.

As for moving averages, the current price of 11.88 is close to the 7-day MA (11.82), but it is being double-resisted by the 30-day MA (11.93) and the 120-day MA (12.50). There is indeed short-term buying interest, but medium- to long-term resistance remains significant.

Volume is an interesting signal—recent trading volume has shrunk significantly compared to before, indicating that more market participants are on the sidelines. The sharp drop on December 26th was accompanied by high volume, but afterward, volume gradually decreased, suggesting selling pressure is weakening. If new volume enters later, it could trigger a reaction.

【Key Position References】

For bullish outlooks, focus on two levels. The first is 11.50 USDT, close to the previous low of 11.55, which is an integer level, and the 120-day MA also provides support nearby. Buying here offers relatively controlled risk. If this level doesn't hold, look at 11.20 USDT, near the starting point of the large bullish candle on December 19th. Historically, many traders tend to buy at such levels. Set your stop-loss for long positions at 11.00; if the price falls below this psychological level, it indicates the trend may truly weaken.

For bearish strategies, the first target is 12.00 USDT, which is the upper boundary of recent consolidation and also where the 30-day MA is located, making it a potential resistance point. If the price can't break through and continues upward, then watch 12.40 USDT, close to the high of 12.42 on December 22nd, which is also a resistance zone of the 120-day MA. If a short position is wrong, set the stop-loss at 12.60; if the price stabilizes above this level and breaks through the 12.50 line, it could open up new upward space, so consider exiting your position then.