After a large number of options expire, the market has not yet broken through the "range consolidation" pattern, #BTC retraced to around $87,000 to seek support?

Bitcoin, after a large number of options expiration, continued its range-bound weak oscillation rather than a strong breakout. The current price is testing the lower boundary of a key zone (the critical support level between $86,500 and $85,000), which is a decisive moment for bulls and bears. Resistance above is concentrated around $90,000; if it cannot break through effectively, it may continue to fluctuate within the broad range of $85,000 to $94,000.

Options market dynamics show that large expiration events (such as approximately $23 billion in contracts) have reset open positions, easing volatility, but traders are constructing volatility harvesting strategies by selling call and put options, reinforcing the range boundaries: a large amount of put options are sold near $85,000, forming potential support; while short call options near $100,000 limit the upside. This options structure reflects market cautiousness about short-term large fluctuations.

On-chain and capital flow indicators suggest that short-term holders' cost bases have repeatedly provided support, but long-term holders' selling pressure has weakened, and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have resumed, providing market stability. However, institutional buying has waned, ETF net outflows have occurred, and combined with decreased liquidity during holiday seasons, this may suppress price breakout momentum.

Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has been repeatedly blocked around the $88,000 to $89,000 zone, forming a "resistance blocked and pulled back" pattern, with technical factors like the 50-day moving average intensifying the oscillation. If the price holds above $85,000 support, it could prepare for the next rally; otherwise, breaking below support may expand the downward space.

【Interpretation】 What does this mean for us?
BTC's range-bound oscillation is not "stagnation," but "accumulation" and "option market consensus." Expiration often leads to volatility resets and "volatility suppression," and the market tends to fall into directionless oscillation after key dates. Based on experience, the most taboo during such times is chasing highs and selling lows; instead, use the "option walls" constructed by the options market to define key support and resistance, and wait for the market to choose its direction. We need to understand that this is not a trending phase but an accumulation stage, where patience is more important than action.

After many options expire, the market falls into consolidation, which is classic market behavior. Options expiration is like a "clearing day," removing many speculative positions, causing volatility (Vol) to decline. Traders then sell options (building "option walls"), actively suppressing volatility and artificially reinforcing the range boundaries (support at 85k, resistance at 100k).

This is not disorderly fluctuation but a market exchanging time for space, seeking new value equilibrium under new macro expectations (slowing rate cuts) and regulatory outlooks. 85,000-86,500 is a strategic defensive line that bulls must hold; losing it would cause sentiment to collapse, while holding it could lead to a rally.

【Countermeasure】 "Use calm to control movement, strike when the time is right."
1. In the current zone (around $87,000), remain inactive, just observe. Do not open new positions or add to existing ones here. This is an "no man's land," where bulls and bears have not yet decided, with low risk-reward ratio. Our task is to wait for the market to make a clear direction.
2. Establish a bridgehead at the key support zone (with total position not exceeding 15% of planned capital.) Respect this technical support and options structure. If a trade occurs, aim for a rebound to the $90,000-$92,000 range.
First echelon: Place limit buy orders near $85,500. This is a front-line probe.
Second echelon: Place limit buy orders near $84,000. This is core defense.
Third echelon: Keep reserved, only for right-side chasing after BTC daily volume recovers above $92,000.
Strict rule: $83,000 is the all-out stop-loss line. Falling below it is considered losing the position, all positions are withdrawn, and a deep wait-and-see approach is adopted.
3. If breaking downward (< $83,000), stop all long operations and wait. Prepare for "ultimate ambush." If broken, "Path Two" begins, the short-term structure deteriorates, and one must wait for market sentiment to fully release, seeking opportunities at lower levels.
4. Resistance zone for rebounds ($90,000 - $92,000), if holding positions, reduce positions in batches. Do not chase the rally. This area is dense with daily moving averages and previous chip pressure zones; initial rebounds here will face heavy selling pressure.
5. Trend reversal point (> $92,000 and stabilize), signals for adding on the right side. Use some reserve funds to add on the right side, provided the price "stabilizes." A volume breakout above this zone indicates the short-term downtrend has been reversed, and a test of the previous high is possible.

Proverb
• Cash is king; patience is for a one-hit win: before the outcome of the $85,000-$86,500 showdown, keep at least 70% cash. The USDT you hold now is the ultimate power to buy bloodied chips in the future.
• Volatility is not risk; disorder is: clear support and resistance, a clear trading plan, can turn volatility into opportunity. Your current plan is to master this volatility.
#BTC行情分析 #期权市场动态
The above analysis and interpretation do not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware of market volatility risks. Log in to the plaza #热门