The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction has become the most critical variable in the current crypto circle. Recently, industry insiders have proposed two completely opposite forecast scenarios, which have stirred up many traders' nerves.

Let's start with the pessimistic side: if the Federal Reserve remains on hold throughout the first quarter of next year and maintains the current interest rate level, Bitcoin could be pushed down to $70,000, and Ethereum could fall to $2,400. It sounds quite alarming, but the premise of this prediction is very important.

However, the actual situation might not be that bad. On December 1st, the Federal Reserve officially ended its prolonged quantitative tightening and shifted to a "Reserve Management Purchase" (RMPs) program, buying about $40 billion worth of short-term government bonds each month. Many analysts refer to this move as "hidden QE," meaning that although there is no explicit call for quantitative easing, market liquidity is indeed increasing.

If this RMPs plan can continue into the first quarter of 2026, the entire situation could reverse. Ample market liquidity means that risk assets will benefit. According to industry forecasts, Bitcoin could surge to between $92,000 and $98,000, and Ethereum wouldn't be too bad either—supported by L2 scaling technology and the DeFi ecosystem, it could reach around $3,600.

Another factor quietly contributing to the trend is the continuous inflow of over $50 billion in ETF funds into the crypto market, along with ongoing accumulation by institutional investors. These factors will further energize the market. With liquidity, institutional buying, and technological progress working together, it looks like the bulls still have a story to tell.