Prediction markets are booming, but hidden dangers lurk beneath

At first glance, prediction markets seem to be thriving. A variety of blockchain-based prediction platforms are emerging rapidly, and trading activity is lively. However, a closer look reveals a persistent structural problem—the event's主体 can both participate in the outcome and place bets in the market.

This logic is actually quite simple: it's like a team that can both play the game and secretly bet on the outcome outside. The conflict of interest is obvious, and no matter how well-designed the system is, it can't withstand such internal contradictions.

Take the Lighter project as an example. The official repeatedly promised to complete the TGE (Token Generation Event) by 2025, which seems highly certain. But as the prediction market approaches the end, few dare to heavily bet on the "Yes" option. The reason is straightforward—no one can guarantee that there won't be a last-minute reversal. The project team can change the timeline, modify plans, or alter commitments. Investors can only watch and wait.

This is the real situation of decentralized prediction markets. They claim to discover truth and eliminate uncertainty through market forces, but in reality, when the prediction target is controlled by certain individuals, the entire market mechanism fails. Decentralization exists only in concept and marketing; in practice, various centralized powers still operate behind the scenes.

The future of prediction markets is indeed promising, but only if this fundamental issue is addressed first.