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A while ago, I saw someone ask: Since de-pegging is so dangerous, if it actually happens, could there be an opportunity to make money?
This question hits the point. The essence of a crisis is the redistribution of wealth; it all depends on whether you can stay clear-headed amid the chaos.
**De-pegging ≠ Inevitable Collapse, but most people can't tell the difference**
A stablecoin dropping to $0.90 sounds pretty scary, but it's not the end. The most common mistake is to look at the price and start buying the dip or panic selling—both extremes will lead to losses.
What you should really look at is the coin's Over-Collateralization Ratio (OCR). This number can tell you whether the de-pegging is just a temporary liquidity issue or a fatal flaw in the system itself.
**Scenario 1: Pure Liquidity Issue**
OCR remains above 110%, and RWA assets are intact—it's just a common situation like large holders dumping or custodians delaying processing. At this point, a $0.90 price doesn't reflect the true risk. The asset pool is enough to cover all debts, and the redemption mechanism will eventually recover. Buying in and waiting for the price to return to $1.00, the 11% difference is your profit. In this case, panic creates opportunity.
**Scenario 2: Solvency Collapse**
OCR drops below 100%, or there are confirmed reports of funds being misappropriated or RWA assets defaulting. At this point, the price might actually be inflated. $0.90 seems cheap, but in reality, it could be forcibly reduced (Haircut) to $0.80 or even worse. Buying in here makes you the bagholder.
**The key is to learn how to distinguish these two situations**
Keep an eye on the net asset value of RWA and the collateralization ratio—don't just guess based on price movements. Data tells the truth; fear and greed will deceive you.