The countdown to Bitcoin halving is getting closer, and the market is everywhere touting the idea that "halving must lead to a bull market." But if you look deeper, you'll see that this time really is different—three unprecedented forces have completely rewritten Bitcoin's supply and demand logic.

**First Change: The Black Hole Effect of Institutional Cold Wallets**

In the past, miners had to sell the coins they mined to cover operational costs, creating a persistent selling pressure. But now, that's different. After massive inflows from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity, they lock the purchased Bitcoin directly into cold wallets, sometimes forever. This is equivalent to permanently freezing a portion of the circulating supply, making the tradable market smaller and smaller.

**Second Change: Miners' Survival Anxiety**

Halving means the block reward is cut in half directly. Older mining machines like the S19, which have been running for years, could become unprofitable overnight—necessitating shutdowns. The entire network's hash rate will undergo a major reshuffle, with only the newest, most energy-efficient miners surviving. During this process, some miners forced out will sell off equipment and assets, leading to short-term selling pressure that looks ugly. The question is, can the market absorb this selling pressure?

**Third Change: Ecosystem Bloodsucking**

The key change happens here—funds are no longer just hoarding Bitcoin. Instead, they are pouring into derivative plays within the Bitcoin ecosystem: STX, Runes, various Layer2 tokens. Bitcoin is gradually evolving into a "base asset," while real profits and wealth effects are playing out in its ecosystem derivatives.

These three forces appearing simultaneously have completely changed the logic of past halvings. Will this round see Bitcoin soaring past all-time highs, or fall into a long period of boring sideways movement? Or even decline gradually? What’s your view?