Bitcoin My Recent Views

【Experience Interpretation】What does it mean for us?
BTC's range-bound oscillation is not "stagnation," but "power accumulation" and "option consensus." Option expirations often lead to volatility resets and "volatility suppression." After important dates, the market tends to fall into directionless oscillation. Based on experience, the most taboo during such times is chasing highs and selling lows. Instead, use the "option wall" constructed by the options market to define key support and resistance levels, and wait for the market to choose its own direction. We need to understand that this is not a trending market but a phase of power buildup; patience is more important than action.

After a large number of options expire, the market falls into consolidation, which is a classic market behavior. Option expiration is like a "clearing day," removing a large number of speculative positions, causing volatility (Vol) to decline. Traders then sell options (building the "option wall"), which actively suppresses volatility and artificially reinforces the range boundaries (support at 85k, resistance at 100k).

This is not disorderly fluctuation but the market exchanging time for space. Under new macro expectations (slowing of rate cuts) and regulatory outlooks, it is seeking a new value equilibrium. 85,000-86,500 is a strategic defense line that bulls must hold; losing it would cause emotional collapse, while holding firm could lead to power buildup for an upward attack.

【Strategy】 "Use calm to control movement, strike when the time is right."
1. In the current zone (around 87,000), stay put and observe. Do not open new positions or add to existing ones here. This is an "no man's land," where bulls and bears are undecided, with low risk-reward ratio. Our task is to wait for the market to make a decision.
2. Establish a bridgehead at the key support zone (with total position not exceeding 15% of planned principal.) Respect this technical support and option structure support. If a transaction occurs, aim for a rebound to the 90,000-92,000 range for swing opportunities.
First echelon: Place limit buy orders near $85,500. This is an exploratory front line.
Second echelon: Place limit buy orders near $84,000. This is core defense.
Third echelon: Keep idle, only to be used for right-side chasing after BTC daily volume recovers above $92,000.
Iron law: $83,000 is the all-out stop-loss line. Falling below it is considered a loss of position, and all positions should be withdrawn for deep observation.
3. Break downward (< 83,000): Stop all long operations and observe. Prepare for "ultimate ambush." If broken, "Path Two" begins, the short-term structure deteriorates, and you need to wait for market sentiment to fully release and look for opportunities at lower levels.
4. Resistance zone for rebounds (90,000 - 92,000): If holding positions, reduce positions in batches. Do not chase the rally. This is a dense area of daily moving averages and previous chip pressure zones. The first rebound reaching here will face significant selling pressure.
5. Trend reversal point (> 92,000 and stabilize): Signal to add positions on the right side. You can use some reserve funds to add positions on the right side, provided the price "stabilizes." A volume breakout above this zone indicates the short-term downtrend has been reversed, and a retest of the previous high is possible.

Proverb
• Cash is king; patience is for a one-hit win: Before the outcome of the 85,000-86,500 showdown, keep at least 70% cash. The USDT you hold now is the ultimate power to buy bloodied chips in the future.
• Volatility is not risk; disorder is: Clear support and resistance, and a clear trading plan can turn volatility into opportunity. Your current plan is to master this volatility.