Peace news has once again ignited the market. But whether this is a genuine turning point or just another "wolf coming," remains to be seen.

Yesterday, gold continued to rise, but international crude oil actually faltered—down 1.86% intraday, falling to $60.7 per barrel, approaching the critical support line of $60. Why are energy prices moving this way? Simply put, the logic is: the market is betting on a easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, betting that Russia can release more oil production capacity.

This optimistic sentiment isn't coming out of nowhere. Let's look at Trump first—he previously stated clearly that he wouldn't meet with either side's leaders until there was substantial progress on the Russia-Ukraine agenda. But this Sunday, the tone changed; he plans to meet Zelensky at Mar-a-Lago. The market interprets this as the peace process entering a more substantive stage. As for Zelensky's statement, the focus of this meeting is on security guarantees, and while it doesn't rule out advancing a peace agreement, he also said there's no guarantee the agreement can be implemented immediately. Interestingly, the US and Russian governments have already communicated directly; Russia later stated that the US and Russia are "soon" to reach an agreement on Ukraine. However, Russia hasn't ruled it out entirely, emphasizing that its peace plan still has differences with Kyiv. Zelensky is even more resolute—planning to submit Trump's proposed ceasefire plan to a national referendum, aiming to secure internal authorization for negotiations.

From these public signals, it's clear that the communication strategies have shifted. Early on, there was frequent media leaks and pressure-building; now, the focus is on announcing progress while keeping details confidential, showing a more restrained pace. This at least indicates that the relevant parties are beginning to realize that "secrecy makes things successful" is more important than hype in public opinion.

But don't get too optimistic. The "turning point" seen now doesn't mean the matter is settled. The core proposals from both Russia and Ukraine still have disagreements. Trump's meeting with Zelensky is fundamentally about trying to craft a framework acceptable to both sides, not just a procedural formality. Zelensky himself has already prepared for the possibility of negotiations failing, leaving enough room for retreat.

Therefore, the current stage should be seen as an important node in the Russia-Ukraine peace process, but far from the end. If the market prices in full peace as a done deal, that would be overly optimistic. The real difficulty in reaching consensus is still quite high. Oil prices will continue to watch whether $60 can hold, and gold's strength may also be falsified—markets tend to oscillate at such nodes, driven by short-term sentiment. Patience; details will gradually surface.